England could be on track for their best ever Women’s World Cup performance if they can overcome Canada on Saturday night.

By the time England play Canada the participants in the first semi-final will be decided. China take on the USA whilst Germany face France on Friday evening; this side of the draw contains the top 3 teams in the world (Germany, USA and France respectively), alongside 1999 runners-up China. Those top 3 sides were among the favourites going into the tournament so it is interesting how the draw has fallen.



USA remain top of our Women’s World Cup Index at a spread of 62-65, despite some ugly wins, whilst Germany aren’t far behind at a spread of 57-60; fixed odds sees these roles reversed, with Germany at 15/8 to lift the cup against the USA’s 21/10. Due to their opponents France and China have suffered in their Index spreads, with the former at a respectable 41-44, whilst the latter has the worst of the remaining sides at 28-31.

Yet for all the quality on that side of the draw, it is not to say England’s draw has been easy. The winner of their match will face either 2011 champions Japan or the 2015 tournament surprise Australia. Japan, alongside Brazil, were one of only 2 sides to win all 3 of their group matches, with efficient victories against Switzerland, Cameroon and Ecuador. Not the toughest group, but still the kind of performances that win tournaments. A last 16 game against the Netherlands was slightly more difficult, but the 2-1 score-line flatters the Dutch, who got their lone goal in injury time, and leaves Japan at an Index spread of 52-55.

Australia, on the other hand, have had one of the more difficult runs in the tournament. They escaped Group D, one that contained world no. 2s the USA and the world no. 6 side Sweden, in 2nd place, after losing their opening game to America 3-1, beating Nigeria 2-0 and drawing with Sweden 1-1. A last 16 game against Brazil looked like it would be the Aussies’ undoing, but a late goal from Kyah Simon saw the legendary Marta and co. dumped out of the competition. The odds are still against them, however, and they sit at an Index spread of 28-21.

England haven’t fared too badly themselves. They admirably progressed from Group F, only behind France on goal difference and beating an impressive Colombia in the process. Their real triumph, however, was their last 16 win over Norway. Whilst there are 5 spaces between England and Norway on FIFA’s World Rankings (former 6th to the latter’s 11th) this is fails to capture the strength of the Norwegian side, a team that has a rich history at the World Cup. A 54th minute goal from Solveig Gulbrandsen saw Norway capitalise on their first half performance, but a goal from captain Steph Houghton 8 minutes later followed by a 76th minute strike from Lucy Bronze saw England win their first ever knockout game at a Women’s World Cup and leaves them at an Index spread of 40-43.



Canada have looked solid if unspectacular so far this year. The hosts set out their intentions in the opening game of the tournament, narrowly beating China with an injury time victory that meant draws against New Zealand and the Netherlands still saw them progress at the top of the table. This set up a last 16 game against Switzerland, one of the easier draws in the knockout stages, with a 52nd minute goal from Josee Belanger enough to put them in the quarters. This is Canada’s best run since they finished 4th in 2003, and the only other year in their 6 appearances that they have escaped the group stages.

Their home-crowd advantage, and slightly better form, has left Canada with a stronger Women’s World Cup Index spread than England at 46-49, alongside the advantage going into Saturday at a Canada/England Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.2-0.4 with a Total Goals spread of 1.9-2.1. But the hugeness of England reaching the semis cannot be underestimated, and Mark Sampson’s side will be gunning for the win.