Can Wales reach a Euro semi-final on the first time of asking, or will the attacking might of Belgium be too much for Chris Coleman’s men?

Things couldn’t be going better for Wales. Not only are they in their first quarter-final since the 1958 World Cup in Sweden (before 2016 their sole appearance at a major tournament), with a decent chance of reaching the final (though they sit at the 2nd worst Outright Index spread of 33-36), but England have already crashed out of competition one round earlier!



Though it would be unfair to downplay the performances of Aaron Ramsey, Joe Allen and Ashley Williams (who effectively played the final 15 minutes of the last 16 win over Northern Ireland with one arm out of commission), realistically Wales’ chance of beating Belgium hinge on Gareth Bale, who heads into Friday night at a Super Mega PGM of 25-30. The Real Madrid maestro has scored 3 of his country’s 7 goals, with 1 assist, form that currently leaves him leading the race for the Golden Boot; he was also instrumental when Wales beat Belgium during qualifying, nabbing the only goal of the game.



While Wales are somewhat reliant on Bale, Belgium have an astonishing amount of options up front. That attack was in full force against Hungary, Marc Wilmots’ side winning 4-0 in part thanks to a blistering performance (arguably the best of the tournament so far) from Eden Hazard, who heads into the quarter-final at a Super Mega PGM of 19-23. The Belgian captain is joined by Romelu Lukaku (at 27-32), the potentially Chelsea-bound Michy Batshuayi (at 25-30) and the influential Kevin De Bruyne (at 13-17), and that is before you consider Liverpool pair Christian Benteke and Divock Origi or previous goalscorers Yannick Carracsco and Radja Nainggolan.

With Portugal through to the semis despite failing to win a single game in 90 minutes, whoever progresses on Friday will fancy their chances at reaching the final. Our traders seem to have a fair idea of who that will be, offering a Belgium/Wales Goal Supremacy spread of 0.55-0.75 (maintaining that advantage at an Extra Time Supremacy spread of 0.05-0.15) alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.25-2.45.



The quarter-final fun doesn’t end there, however, with the other side of the draw in action over the weekend. First up is the most promising fixture of the final 8, as Italy face Germany on Saturday evening. Both sides have been in fine form this tournament; Italy triumphed over defending champions Spain with a masterful performance, while Germany obliterated Slovakia 3-0 (and could have had a fair few more). Out Spreadex traders think Joachim Low’s side should just edge it, at a Germany/Italy Goal Supremacy spread of 0.25-0.45, though it must be said that the Italians have been consistently underestimated, first against Belgium and then against the Spanish.



Sunday then sees hosts France take on scalpers Iceland. Having conceded a penalty in the 2nd minute of their last 16 tie against the Republic of Ireland things were looking shaky for the French. However a 3 minute brace from Antoine Griezmann in the middle of the 2nd half broke Irish hearts, sending Didier Deschamps’ to the next round. Iceland, meanwhile, pulled off the shock of the competition so far, outplaying England to reach the quarter-finals of their first ever major tournament. Our Spreadex traders seem confident that Iceland’s fairy-tale will end soon, offering a France/Iceland Goal Supremacy spread of 1.2-1.4, though, remember, that it what they said last time.

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