Sports Blog 01/05/2015: Match Preview – Premier League, Saturday 2nd to Monday 4th May 2015

Whilst the top flight title race could be all over on Sunday, the battles at the top and bottom are far from resolved as we go into the latest Premier League weekend.

First up on Saturday is yet another decisive relegation battle, as a (relatively) resurgent Leicester host a hopeless Newcastle at 12.45pm on BT Sport 1. Despite losing 3-1 to Chelsea on Wednesday, complete with a brattish display from Nigel Pearson afterwards, Leicester remain in good form, especially against bottom half sides. However, they aren’t out of the relegation woods yet, and sit in 17th on 31 points with Sunderland in 18th on 30 points, who crucially have a game in hand. The Foxes are currently on a Relegation Index 50-25-10 spread of 1.5-3.5 compared to Sunderland’s 11-14; favourable, but still not favourable enough.



If Leicester have undergone somewhat of a turnaround, then Newcastle are currently one of the worst sides in the league. They have lost their last 7 games in a row, only managing to score 4 times in the process. Whilst they have faced Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham in this period, lifeless displays against Sunderland and Everton leave them in 14th on 35 points. In other words unlikely to be dragged into the relegation battle proper but not too far away from it either. Our traders are expecting the Toon’s dismal run to continue offering a Leicester/Newcastle Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.45-0.65 with a Total Goals spread of 2.6-2.8.

Moving onto Saturday afternoon sees Manchester United host West Brom at 5.30pm on Sky Sports 1. United, in 4th on 65 points, are pretty damn likely to ensure some form of Champions League spot by the end of the season given that Liverpool are 7 points behind in 5th despite their embarrassing 3-0 loss to Everton at the weekend. However, they will be keen to gain automatic qualification, as well as a higher finish than City and Arsenal. The former is achievable, with City only 2 points ahead. The latter, on the other hand, may prove to be a bit more difficult considering that Arsenal are also 2 points ahead but with a game in hand. To put it in context, Manchester United are at a Premier League Index spread of 13-16 (where a team gets 60 for 1st, 40 for 2nd, 20 for 3rd, 10 for 4th and 5 for 5th) compared to Arsenal on 31-34 and City at 21-24.



Luckily for United, they are faicng a side that have very little to play for. West Brom are in 13th on 37 points, and have a negligible Relegation Index spread of 0-0.5. In other words, they are safe from bottom three. At the same time, they are 5 points behind 12th place Crystal Palace and have no real chance of a top 10 finish. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Red Devils are heavy favourites for this match, at a Manchester United/West Brom Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 1.35-1.55 with a Total Goals spread of 2.75-2.95.

Early Sunday afternoon then sees what is likely to be the most important game of the long weekend is most likely. Chelsea host Crystal Palace in a London derby, and will seal the title with a victory. Despite a first half wobble against Leicester mid-week, Jose Mourinho once again got what he needed from his men, leaving them tantalising close to their 2nd piece of silverware this season. Yet they haven’t exactly being winning in style recently, with only 7 goals in their last 6 league home games. In fact, they have only led at half time in 6 of their past 15 league games.



Crystal Palace, much like West Brom, have little left to do this season. However, that this is the case is a testament to the powers of Alan Pardew, who has dragged Palace out of the doldrums to mid-table safety. Palace had won 4 games on the trot before tripping up in their past 2 matches, and a win against Manchester City shows they can cause an upset. However, with the title in their sites, it is hard to see beyond the Blues winning the league on home soil, at a Chelsea/Crystal Palace Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 1.45-1.65 with a Total Goals spread of 2.7-2.9.

Sunday’s late game sees an important fight for a place in Europe, only not in the same European competition, as Manchester City travel to White Hart Lane to face Tottenham at 4pm on Sky Sports 1. Tottenham are currently sitting in 6th on 58 points, the same as Liverpool above them, and one point ahead of Southampton below them. They have failed in their usual push for Arsenal’s top 4 place and may not even get top 5 if Liverpool manage to stall their losses. Yet an interesting stat about Tottenham, and indeed City, is that despite their fairly regular screw-ups, they have the top 2 average goals per game in the Premier League, with City at 3.12 and Spurs on 3.06. Add to the mix the fact that in their last 7 league fixtures against each other a staggering 34 goals have been scored, and it is unsurprising that Spreadex are offering an unusually high Total Goals spread of 3.15-3.35.



Manchester City, for their part, sit in 2nd, far behind Chelsea and likely to lose their position if Arsenal keep up their current run. City can count themselves lucky that they are still sitting in such an exalted position considering they have lost their last 4 away games in a row, and given that Tottenham need a win more than they do, the Manchester side may struggle on Sunday. However, Spurs have looked just as problematic of late, and our traders are expecting City to stop their away losing streak at a Man City/Tottenham (h) Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.3-0.5.

Finally, Monday sees another top and bottom of the table clash as 3rd place Arsenal take on 15th place Hull at 8pm on Sky Sports 1. With their 1-0 victory over Liverpool on Tuesday, Hull not only revoked the Reds’ hopes of a top 4 finish, but lifted themselves away from the danger zone. Now on 34 points Hull aren’t’ completely safe, but are certainly in a better position than if they had lost to Anfield’s (not so) finest earlier in the week.



After drawing against Chelsea Arsenal’s dim hopes of snatching the title finally disappeared. However, a 2nd place finish is still more than achievable, and considering the Gunners are unbeaten in 10 games, Wenger’s men will fancy their chances at the KC Stadium. As ever, Arsenal’s front line remains key, and in the league only Chelsea and Southampton have kept a clean sheet against them. Both our traders and clients alike fancy an away win, at an Arsenal/Hull (h) Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.7-0.9 with a Total Goals spread of 2.5-2.7.