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Sports Blog 01/10/2015: Rugby World Cup Preview – England vs Australia, Saturday 3rd October 2015



Despite having only played 2 games, England’s place at their own World Cup is suddenly in doubt – can they get their competition back on course against Australia on Saturday?


Rugby World Cup Updated Outright Index Spreads October 1st

Defeat at the weekend is unthinkable for England; it would effectively put them out of the competition, potentially becoming the first hosts to exit in the Pool stages in the tournament’s history. The loss to Wales saw Stuart Lancaster under fire for his selections; oddly, the most controversial choice, Owen Farrell in for George Ford, was the most successful, with Farrell scoring all 5 of his penalties and his one conversion. Rugby League convert Sam Burgess, in contrast, was the most egregious replacement, failing to gel with Brad Barritt in the centre and drawing the most ire after the final whistle. The sting in the tail was a tournament-ending injury for Billy Vunipola, piling misery on an already bitterly disappointing weekend. It leaves England at a reduced Outright Index spread of 36-39, now behind not only New Zealand (as they were when the competition began) but also South Africa, Ireland, France and, in a telling sign, Australia.

The Aussies sit at 44-47, and are now favourites to top Pool A at an Index spread of 34-36 to England’s 30-32 (Wales are at 32-34). In perhaps more a show of their opponents’ weakness than their own strength, Australia racked up an impressive 65 point to Uruguay’s 3, and that is with Quade Cooper (in for Bernard Foley, returns on Saturday) missing 6 of his 11 conversions. The team that will face England, however, will be almost completely different, with Michael Cheika opting for the line-up that beat Fiji instead of the second-stringers that toppled the Uruguayans.

The lack of game time for the first team will either work in the Aussies’ favour, with fresh legs besting an under pressure England, or will come back to haunt Cheika, with his side’s lack of game causing his team fall in the face of a hungry wave of red and white. Our traders are erring towards the latter, offering a narrow England/Australia Supremacy spread of 1-3.


 

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