Sports Blog 02/03/2015: Tournament Preview – Cricket World Cup 2015 Update, Monday 2nd March 2015

The Cricket World Cup is in full swing with only 2 weeks left of the group stage, and whilst many of the usual suspects are performing as expected, the tournament has seen some interesting results.

Both pools have seen their fair share of upsets and disappointments. In Pool A the biggest surprise (or cynically, perhaps not) has been the complete capitulation of England. The peak of England’s tournament so far has been the heady highs of a win against Scotland, with losses to Australia, New Zealand and most recently a heavy defeat to Sri Lanka. England have the week off, playing Bangladesh on the 9th, a game they should win; however, a consensus is building that even if England do get to the quarter-finals, they stand no chance of winning. This has been reflected in their Outright Index spread, slipping from 18-21 before the tournament to a limp 10-13, the largest fall from grace on the index.

Australia are having a similarly disappointing, if not as disastrous, start to their home-soil World Cup. Their opening game against England saw the Aussies win by 111 runs, but since then the picture has been less clear. Their game against Bangladesh was frustratingly rained off, soon to be followed by a narrow one wicket defeat to New Zealand. Australia may have remained at their pre-tournament Outright spread of 32-35, but they are looking at a trickier path to any potential final than they would have wished for, seeing their fixed odds grow from 2/1 to 15/8. The Aussies will be hoping to use Wednesday’s game against Afghanistan as a palette cleanser to get their tournament back on track, before a tougher tie on Sunday as they face Sri Lanka.



Speaking of Sri Lanka, since losing their opening game to New Zealand, they have been on a bit of a tear-up, notching emphatic wins against Afghanistan, Bangladesh and England. These performances, led by Lahiru Thirimanne and Kumar Sangakkara, have seen Sri Lanka’s Outright Index spread increase from 16-19 to 18-21, with entry to the quarter-finals at the very least looking likely. However, with their next game against an Australia side desperate for a win Sri Lanka may be about to face their toughest test since their opening game.

Finally for Pool A, co-hosts New Zealand have sent out a warning shot with their first 4 games, as the Kiwis stake their claim on the title. Whilst a victory against Scotland is par for the course, wins against England, Australia and Sri Lanka means they have dispatched of their main rivals in the pool, and leaves them with the best record in the tournament so far. Their next game is on Sunday, in what should be another routine win over Afghanistan, with the Kiwis seeing their Outright Index spread creep up from 24-27 to 28-31 alongside a fixed odds price of 15/4, placing them (rather modestly) second favourites behind Australia to take the crown.

Over in Pool B there have been just as many surprises, number one being Ireland’s performance in the tournament. They have won both of their games, leaving them as one of only 3 teams to be undefeated, the other 2 being the less anomalous Indian and New Zealand sides. A victory against UAE is not that impressive; however, a 4 wicket win over the West Indies was shocking to say the least. This has meant Ireland have gone from a 0.5-2 Outright Index spread to 3-6, an amazing feat for such a cricketing minnow, especially in a tournament format that many feel favours the big boys of the game. They will have to weather a tough week, however, with the chance of defeat against South Africa on Tuesday followed by a winnable game against Zimbabwe on Saturday.

As mentioned, India are currently the second best team in the tournament, with their 3 from 3 wins only being surpassed by New Zealand’s 4 in 4. Pool B’s equivalent of Scotland, the United Arab Emirates, were easily beaten by India, but their victories over Pakistan and South Africa were more impressive. The current champions should easily escape their pool, and will fancy their chances against an inconsistent West Indies on Friday; this has seen them push from 19-22 to 24-27 on the Outright Index, the biggest upward gain out of all 14 teams, with their fixed odds price shrinking from 9/1 to 6/1.



If India are soaring, then their fierce rivals, and 2011 semi-finalists, Pakistan are struggling. A victory over Zimbabwe is all Pakistan have to cling on to, after slipping to defeat against India and West Indies; their course to the quarter finals is looking rocky, rocky enough that they could be usurped by the Irish. Their pre-tournament spread of 15-18 has slipped to 10-13, with our traders still confident they can turn it around; the feasibility of this should be clear by Saturday, with Pakistan facing both UAE and South Africa this week.

Finally, the pre-tournament second place favourites South Africa remain in the running, even if their star has diminished somewhat. Zimbabwe failed to stretch South Africa, and they dismissed the weak West Indies side by 257 runs. Yet they failed in their only true test of ability, losing by 130 runs against Pool B leaders India. This has caused their Outright Index spread to slip from 28-31 to 27-30, with New Zealand over-taking them in the process, whilst remaining above the Kiwis with a fixed odds price of 10/3. However, South Africa should be able to see off Ireland on Tuesday, even if they are undefeated, and given Pakistan’s poor performances of late, South Africa will fancy their chances on Saturday.

Check back at Spreadex for updated Cricket World Cup prices, including a wide-range of in-game options, Outright Index 60-40-20-10-0 spreads, fixed odds Tournament Winners, as well as country-based specials for all of the teams involved: https://sports.spreadex.com/en-GB/spread-betting/Cricket/m125