Sports Blog 02/10/2015: Match Preview – Premier League, Saturday 3rd to Sunday 4th October 2015

There are some Premier League corkers this weekend (mainly on Sunday) ahead of next week’s international break.

First up on Saturday sees a fairly strong Crystal Palace take on a struggling West Brom at 12.45pm on BT Sport 1. 3 losses and 4 wins, most recently away at Watford, is a respectable return for Crystal Palace so far this season, beating the teams that they should (and one they traditionally wouldn’t have, beating an erratic Chelsea 2-1), but dropping points against those likely comprise the league’s top 5 (Arsenal, Manchester City, Tottenham). Last weekend’s victory over Watford was another solid, if uninspiring, 3 points for Alan Pardew’s side, with a penalty from Yohan Cabaye (at 7/1 to score first on Saturday) giving Palace a 1-0 win.



In contrast West Brom have largely disappointed, with wins over Villa and Stoke the only highlights. Coming just a few days after West Brom’s 3-0 loss to Norwich in the League Cup, Monday’s loss against Everton was even more painful due to the fact that the Baggies had been leading 2-0. Goals either side of half time from Saido Berahino (at a Super Mega PGM of 18-22 going into the weekend) and Craig Dawson had given West Brom their biggest lead of any point this season, only for the Toffees to fight back and win 3-2.

Palace’s decent form, and the Baggies’ lack of spine, has led our Spreadex traders to offer a Crystal Palace/West Brom Goal Supremacy spread of 0.65-0.85 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.35-2.55.

Saturday’s other televised games sees two of last season’s stars, now in wildly inconsistent form, face-off, as Chelsea host Southampton at 5.30pm on Sky Sports 1. Just as the Blues appeared to building up some kind of form, with consecutive wins against Maccabi Tel-Aviv, Arsenal and Walsall, a 2-2 draw against Newcastle (with a point only salvaged by late goals from Ramires and Willian) and a limp 2-1 loss against Porto in the Champions League leaves Chelsea in a rather baffling position. They also go into the weekend without their bullish striker Diego Costa, having to rely on the lukewarm Loic Remy and Radamel Falcao, at a Super Mega PGM of 26-31 and 25-30 respectively, to lead the front line.



Southampton are in a similar, if slightly less extreme, situation as Chelsea. Losses against Evetton and Manchester United, draws against Newcastle, Watford and West Brom, and victories over Norwich and, last weekend, Swansea paints an unclear picture of where the Saints are at. Their surprise-success story title, so hard earned last season, appears to have been relinquished to West Ham and Crystal Palace this year, with Southampton so far looking much more like a mid-table side. At least Graziano Pelle is still performing well; 4 goals in 7 league games is a healthy haul, and leaves the Italian with a Super Mega PGM spread of 16-20.

Despite the scattershot nature of their form, Chelsea undeniably have the quality to beat anyone on their day. Whether that side turns up, however, is the question; our traders suspect they will, offering a Chelsea/Southampton Goal Supremacy spread of 0.65-0.85 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.65-2.85.

The earlier of Sunday’s two mega-games then sees the first of the season’s Merseyside derbies, as Everton take on Liverpool at 1.30pm on Sky Sports 1. There may have been disappointments in Everton’s season so far, including an opening day draw against Watford and meek displays against Tottenham and Swansea (a loss to Man City probably didn’t cause too many surprises). However, victories over Southampton and Chelsea were more than mere confidence-boosters, and last weekend’s comeback against West Brom shows the Toffees have an important strain of grit and determination. That win also came complete with a brace from their most promising forward Romelu Lukaku, upping his total to 6 goals in 9 games (all competitions).



Whilst Liverpool may not have suffered the way, say, Chelsea have at the start of this season, there has been little to shout about. 1-0 wins over Stoke and Bournemouth at the start of the season gave way to draws against Arsenal and Norwich, and comprehensive losses against Liverpool and Manchester United. Last weekend’s 3-2 win over Aston Villa eased some of the pressure on Brendan Rodgers, but a 1-1 draw against Swiss minnows FC Sion in the Europa League on Thursday did nothing to dispel the idea that this is an unambitious Liverpool side.

Whilst the Toffees are arguably in better form, they haven’t won a derby in their last 10 attempts, meaning this has been just too hard to call for our traders, who are offering a choice Everton/Liverpool Goal Supremacy spread of -0.1-0.1 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.5-2.7.

Finally, the biggest game of the weekend comes on Sunday afternoon, as Manchester United travel to Arsenal at 4pm on Sky Sports 1. An impressive, Alexis Sanchez-led 5-2 victory over Leicester last weekend had many pointing to the win in the Gunners’ so-far frustrating season, the first truly convincing win in opening 7 league games. Instead Arsenal fans were treating to a 3-2 defeat at the hands of Greek champions Olympiakos, their second European defeat in a row (and they haven’t even played Bayern Munich yet) complete with an own goal from no. 2 keeper David Ospina.



In contrast Manchester United now sit atop the Premier League ahead of their City rivals, buoyed by the recent arrival of Anthony Martial. They have won 5 of their 6 games since the young Frenchman made his debut, most recently a 3-0 victory over Sunderland last weekend and a 2-1 win over Wolfsburg following their 2-1 loss against PSV Eindhoven in their opening Champions League game. United had gone behind in the 4th minute against the German side, before a 34th minute penalty from Juan Mata and a first goal of the season from Christ Smalling gave the Manchester side the win.

Despite Arsenal’s shakiness at the back, the return of Petr Cech in goal and Oliver Giroud up front (who missed the Olympiakos match through suspension) has our Spreadex traders opting for the London side, offering an Arsenal/Manchester United Goal Supremacy spread of 0.35-0.55 with a Total Goals spread of 2.65-2.85.