Sports Blog 03/12/2015: Football Preview – How will Gary Neville fare as Valencia’s new head coach?

Gary Neville’s appointment as new head coach at Valencia caught most of the football world by surprise, but what can punters expect from the move?

If betting levels on last night’s 3-1 Copa del Rey win at Barakaldo are anything to go by, Neville’s move may help to spark an increased interest for punters on the progress of Valencia this season.

At Spreadex there was a healthy amount of interest in the Round of 32 encounter, including some large stakes being put down in support of ‘The Bats’ despite the match not being televised.

Neville takes up the role on a six month contract, replacing the departed Nuno Espirito Santo and joining brother Phil, who is currently assistant coach at the club.

The 40-year-old has become a popular figure in his role as a Sky Sports pundit for his forthright views and honest opinions. So how will he cope now being the focus of attention himself and what will he need to do to keep the job past the end of the season?



Valencia have certainly been performing below par in La Liga this term. Spreadex’s Points Prediction for the club at the start of the season was 67 – 70 (spread based on the total points our traders think each club will amass at the end of the campaign).

The spread has now dropped to 56.5 – 58 indicating the under-performance, so from a spread betting point of view if Neville ends the season with 59 points or more he will have arguably exceeded expectations.

The east-coast club is currently ninth in the table with 19 points from 13 games so it means Neville will be looking to accumulate at least 40 points from his remaining 25 games.

Realistically, however, fans will be expecting their team to get as close as possible to last season’s fourth placed finish with the very least a top six spot to secure a European place (last season 60 points was enough for Villarreal to finish sixth).

Home form could be the key, with Valencia currently unbeaten in their six league matches at the 55,000 capacity Mestalla Stadium.

That stat is likely to end this weekend though as Barcelona come to town on Saturday with the game live on Sky Sports 2 at 7.30pm. The Spreadex traders have the Goal Supremacy at a daunting-looking Barcelona/Valencia 1.6 – 1.8 so Neville will perhaps be glad he doesn’t officially take over until Sunday.

His first game in charge will be the final Champions League Group H game against Lyon on Wednesday where Valencia need to win and hope that Gent fail to win at home against Zenit if they are to reach the next phase.

Our spread betting Champions League Group H Index betting (25 points to group winner, 10 to second place side, 5 to third place side, 0 to fourth place side) has Gent at 7.75 – 8.25 and Valencia at 6.75 – 7.25, so while tight does slightly favour Gent to sneak through.

So any progress into the knockout stages could be taken as something of a bonus, as would be continued progress in the Copa del Rey after the midweek win at Barakaldo mentioned earlier.

In terms of what spread betters should look out for if they are to take more of an interest in Valencia for the remainder of the season, then the following figures from footstats.co.uk could be of interest.

According to the site, Valencia have committed the second highest number of fouls in La Liga so far this season and have had the highest number of fouls committed against them of any side in the league.

Therefore Bookings (spread based on 10 points awarded per player booked and 25 per player sent off with a maximum of 35 per player) could be a market to look out for if matches turn into fiery affairs as was the case in Valencia’s last La Liga clash; a 1-0 loss at Sevilla where two visiting players saw red and Bookings ended at a whopping 120.

In that same match, Sevilla took a mammoth 17 corners while Valencia didn’t take a single flag kick.

In fact Valencia have the third lowest average for corners taken in the whole of La Liga at 4.7 per game so perhaps another market for spread betters to keep an eye on.

Neville’s appointment has also led to some people questioning his role as coach in the current England set up. However, bookmakers appear unconcerned about this overly affecting England’s chances at the Euros come next summer with the Three Lions remaining a 9/1 shot with Spreadex behind Germany and France (both 3/1), Spain (5/1) and Belgium (8/1).