Sports Blog 03/07/2015: Match Preview – Copa America Final, Saturday 4th July 2015

After a tournament that has fallen flat at times, an exciting pair of semi-finals leaves Saturday’s Copa America crescendo with hosts Chile facing favourites Argentina.

Beforehand Peru and Paraguay will fight it out for 3rd place on Friday evening (or Saturday morning if you are so inclined). Both sides did well to get to the semis, with the former escaping a group containing Brazil and Colombia, whilst the latter actually defeated the Canarinho on penalties. However, the heavy semi-final defeat for Paraguay leaves Los Incas with a slender advantage at a Peru/Paraguay Goal Supremacy spread of 0.05-0.25.



Despite drawing ire for couple of refereeing controversies along the way, especially against Uruguay, Chile have had a dream tournament as they aim for their first ever Copa America victory. QPR’s Eduardo Vargas was the star of their semi-final against Peru, grabbing a brace to help see off a tenacious Los Incas that were (contentiously) playing with 10 men from the 20th minute of the game. An own goal from Chile’s Gary Medel had drawn Peru level following Vargas’s first half opener, but 4 minutes later the QPR forward nabbed his second which was enough for Chile to progress to their first final since 1987.

That brace leaves Vargas as top scorer in the competition with 4 goals, incidentally the same tally he reached for QPR in 21 appearances last season; he goes into the final at a Super Mega Player Minutes spread of 15-19 and at 15/2 to score first. Juventus’ Arturo Vidal, lucky not to have been dismissed himself in the semi-final, isn’t far behind Vargas with 3 goals, all in the group stages; he is at a Super Mega Player Minutes spread of 12-16. Chile have a vibrant side and will now doubt be buoyed by a home crowd that have been waiting for a Copa America title since the competition began 99 years ago. Yet the strength of their opponents has reduced Chile’s Copa America Index spread of 35-38, where the winner receives 50 points and the runner-up 30, and 6/4 fixed odds.



In contrast, Argentina are odds on favourites at 4/5 with an Index spread of 42-45. Yet it took Los Gauchos a while to get going. After failing to truly convince for much of the competition, the Argentina fans the world over (well maybe not those in Paraguay) were yearning for materialised in the semi-finals, with a masterclass in orchestration from Lionel Messi. Despite only scoring once in the competition, Messi was the driving force behind Argentine’s 6-1 victory over Paraguay (after drawing with them 2-2 in their opening game) and sits at a Super Mega Player Minutes spread of 31-37.

Manchester City talisman Sergio Aguero could still be in the race for top scorer this tournament with 3 goals, and has a Super Mega Player Minutes spread of 20-24, whilst Angel di Maria, also on 3 goals, has had a much better time of it internationally that he did at Man United last season, and his brace against Paraguay leaves him with a Super Mega Player Minutes spread of 12-16. Argentina haven’t won a Copa America since 1993, and were runners-up in 2004 and 2007, both times losing to Brazil. However, a victory on Saturday will see them equal Uruguay’s record of 15 championships and they go into the final with as favourites, just, at an Argentina/Chile (h) Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.25-0.45 with a Total Goals spread of 2.35-2.55.