Sports Blog 03/03/2015: Match Preview – Aston Villa vs West Brom, Tuesday 3rd March 2015

It is the battle of the ‘brought-in’ managers tonight, as the (relatively) new appointments of Tim Sherwood and Tony Pulis face off in the West Midlands derby at 7.45pm on BT Sport 1.

Not to be blunt, but Aston Villa have been woeful this season. Villa haven’t won in their last 12 games, with 9 of those losses. In fact, Villa have lost their last 7 league games in a row. Unsurprisingly this slump caused some changes up top, with Tim Sherwood replacing Paul Lambert on the 14th February. Initially this appointment seemed to have worked, with Aston Villa beating Leicester City in the FA Cup. Yet Leicester are the only team below them in the league, lessening this achievement somewhat; on top of this, Villa then lost their first 2 league games under Sherwood, with defeats at home to Stoke and away at Newcastle.



The thing is, Villa haven’t even been mildly unlucky; any team that can only manage 13 goals in 27 games can’t be surprised at sitting in the relegation zone. Even Leicester, one place below Villa in 20th, have managed 24 goals in the league. Yet things could still turn around for Villa with a win tonight due to the tightness of this relegation race. Spreadex offer a Relegation 50-25-10 Index, where bottom place gets 50 points, 2nd bottom 25 points and 3rd bottom 10. With this in mind, Leicester City are in 20th with 18 points at a spread of 18-21, but a game in hand, whilst QPR (also with a game in hand at a spread of 16-19) and Burnley (spread of 21-24) sit on the same 22 points as Villa (11-14 spread). You then have Sunderland on 25 points in 16th and Hull City on 26 in 15th both at a Relegation Index spread of 4-7. These odds aren’t insurmountable for Sherwood and his team, but they will need to get their rejuvenation under way soon if they are to stand a chance.

If they want an example of how to do it, then they need look no further than their opponents. West Brom were in similar dire straits before Tony Pulis took over, but since his appointment the Baggies have only lost once in his 10 games in charge and are now sitting 8 points above Villa in 13th. This included their emphatic 4-0 win over West Ham in the FA Cup, and a 1-0 victory over Southampton at the weekend. Impressively, in 7 out of Pulis’ 10 games West Brom have kept a clean sheet, and given that they will be against a Villa side that have a goal-phobia, this is a stat that could easily continue.



However, West Brom have only managed 8 league goals on the road, and face the worrying prospect of both their top scorers, Saido Berahino and Brown Ideye, missing the game after each picked up knocks against the Saints. Their absence would be a big blow to the Baggies, as Berahino on 17 goals this season is at 17/4 to score first, whilst Ideye is at 6/1 on 6 goals. They are joined by Victor Anichebe at 13/2 with 4 goals. Similarly, Villa could be without Ron Vlar due to calf problems, and will be definitely missing Kieran Richardson and Aly Cissokho due to ongoing injuries. Sherwood will desperately need to inspire confidence in its ‘star’ strikers if he wants to get Villa’s season back on track. Belgium’s Christian Benteke is at 9/2 to score first with only 3 goals this season, whilst Gabriel Agbonhalor is at 17/2 also on 3 goals. Andreas Weimann rounds out Villa’s top three at 9/1 with 4 goals.

What is interesting about this fixture is that it will be played once again on Saturday, this time in the FA Cup. The cup is where Villa have found whatever meagre form they have had this season, so they might tentatively have one eye on the weekend. Considering that all of the league meetings between these two sides have ended in a difference of only 1 goal, Spreadex are offering a low Total Goals spread of 1.9-2.1. And given that West Brom have drawn 4 out of their last 5 away games, alongside Villa’s clear inability to find the back of the next, we have a choice spread of an Aston Villa/West Brome Goal Supremacy quote of -0.1-0.1 in a game that is too close to call for all the wrong reasons.