Sports Blog 03/11/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 3rd November 2015

It’s a big night for both Manchester sides, as they try and ensure safe passage to the knockout rounds of the Champions League!

Staying in Manchester is the red half of the city, as United host CSKA Moscow at 7.45pm on BT Sport Europe. Sitting 2nd in Group B, but level on 4 points with their Tuesday opponents, United stalled somewhat in October. Van Gaal’s side managed a solitary win last month, against Everton; that was joined by a 3-0 loss against Arsenal, 2 0-0 draws in the league (against Man City and Crystal Palace), a 0-0 draw in the League Cup against Middlesbrough that led to an ignoble penalty defeat and, most relevantly, a 1-1 away draw against CKSA Moscow in the Champions League.

Arguably United’s most pressing issue lies going forwards. Anthony Martial, when given a chance to play in position, has been a delight, scoring 5 goals in his 9 United appearances, leaving him with a Super Mega PGM spread of 25-30. More of a worry, however, is Wayne Rooney; fans and pundits alike are continuing to question Louis van Gaal’s insistence that his captain is the first name on the team-sheet following a series of woeful performances, especially when it is forcing the more in-form Martial out on the wing. Yet given his automatic selection the under-fire Scouser still sits at a game best Super Mega PGM spread of 27-32.



Unluckily for United, their opponents shouldn’t be underestimated. A narrow loss to Wolfsburg, a 3-2 victory over PSV Eindhoven (that was almost thrown away given that the Russian side were at one point 3-0 up) and that aforementioned draw against United is arguably a strong European run for a side that perhaps would have accepted fewer points at this point in the competition.

In the Russian Premier League they have been even better, sitting in 1st place with 8 points to spare after securing 11 wins, 3 draws and no losses. Regardless of the respective quality of each league that leaves CSKA with the best form in Group B, and give them the potential for an upset on Tuesday night. The chances of an upset will be immeasurably increased if Seydou Doumbia can continue his current run of form; with 5 goals in the league and 6 goals in Europe (including a brace against PSV and the opener against United) Doumbia is CSKA’s player to watch, going into Tuesday night at a Super Mega PGM of 14-18.

Louis van Gaal could really do with a win, not only to end United’s current winless spell but also to help them escape a group they have so far fumbled in. Our Spreadex traders seem to think they have it in them, offering a Manchester United/CSKA Moscow Goal Supremacy spread of 0.95-1.15 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.6-2.8.

Whilst United remain at home City face a trip to Sevilla at 7.45pm on BT Sport 2. City appear to have recovered from a minor blip in form that saw then lose to West Ham, Tottenham and Juventus in the space of 11 days back in September. Barring that dreadful 0-0 draw with Manchester United, City have been on fire in October; a 6-1 trouncing of Newcastle, a 5-1 victory over Bournemouth and a 2-1 win over Norwich joined that Manchester derby snooze-fest, whilst yet another 5-1 thrashing, this time against Crystal Palace, saw them progress to the 5th round of the League Cup. They also managed to beat Sevilla in their home fixture 2-1, with an Adil Rami own goal and an injury time winner from Kevin De Bruyne saving City’s blushes after Yevhen Konoplyanka had nabbed the opener.

And whilst Aguero (still out with a hamstring injury) might be City’s top scorer, with 6 goals in the league and 1 in both the League Cup and Champions League, more consistent has been the newest boy in blue, Kevin De Bruyne. With 6 goals in 12 games the Belgian’s presence has arguably elevated an already fantastic side, and helped City navigate away from a potentially Chelsea-like slide in the second half of September. He goes into Tuesday night at 17/2 to score first with a Super Mega PGM spread of 18-22.



In contrast Sevilla have struggled so far this season. In La Liga draws against Malaga and Levante were joined by losses to Atletico Madrid, Celta Vigo and Las Palmas, leaving the Europa League champions with a rather limp start to the season. Back to back wins against Rayo Vallecano and, importantly, Barcelona, then appeared to have got Los Rojiblancos back on track; however, Sevilla followed that momentous victory with a draw against Eibar, an admittedly impressive 5-0 win over Getafe and, most recently, a 2-1 defeat to Villareal.

Things haven’t been much better in Europe; since their 3-0 opening win against Borussia Monchengladbach in the Champions League Sevilla have lost against Juventus and, arguably unluckily, Manchester City. And without top scorer Kevin Gameiro, the Spanish club will be under even more pressure, pressure that will likely fall on the shoulders of summer signings Fernando Llorente and Yevhen Konoplyanka to perform, sitting at Super Mega PGMs of 27-32 and 19-23 respectively.

Yet for all their troubles they are still the most successful club in the Europa League’s history, and have the quality to turn that into a decent Champions League run. That means our traders have found Tuesday’s game just too tight to call, offering a choice Sevilla/Manchester City Goal Supremacy spread of -0.1-0.1 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.9-3.1.