Sports Blog 04/08/2015: Season Preview – Championship, Friday 7th to Sunday 9th August 2015

The Championship gets underway on Friday, kicking off a busy weekend for English football’s second tier league!

Things get off to a fairly inauspicious start on Friday, as Brighton take on Nottingham Forest. Both sides failed to spark much excitement last season, with Forest finishing in 14th with 59 points whilst Brighton finished in 20th on 47 (but would have finished in 21st if it hadn’t been for Rotherham’s 3 point deduction). Their Season Points spreads reflect the lacklustre nature of each side, with Forest’s 61-63 just beating the Seagull’s 59.5-61.5. In terms of the season opener, the home (sea)side are expected to win, at a Brighton/Forest Goal Supremacy spread of 0.2-0.4.

Saturday then brings with it the bulk of the Championship’s games, including all of last season’s Premier League rejects. After finishing in 18th, 3 points behind Aston Villa and Sunderland, Hull are expected to fair the best from the demoted three; they face Huddersfield at the weekend. The Terriers were one of the Championship’s many mid-table misers, finishing in 16th with 55 points, leaving them with a fairly lifeless Season Points spread of 54.5-56.5. In comparison Steve Bruce’s side sit at a 71.5-73.5 spread alongside 9/1 fixed odds to win the league, potentially putting Hull in the top four teams in the Championship. Understandably the Tigers go into the weekend as favourites, at a Hull/Huddersfield Goal Supremacy spread of 0.75-0.95.

The other two relegated sides aren’t too far behind Hull. After finishing 19th in the top flight, Burnley face a club with even greater Premier League pedigree in the form of Leeds. The Whites ended last season with 56 points in 15th place, and go into 2015/16 with much the same expectations at a Season Points spread of 55-57. Burnley fare better, with their 69-71 spread the 5th best heading into the new season. The more recent Premier League reject goes into the first game with the advantage, at a Burnley/Leeds (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0-0.2.



QPR finished bottom of the Premier League in a relegation battle that at points involved a third of the table; they take on Charlton at the weekend. Charlton finished on 60 points to reach 12th, beating Sheffield Wednesday to the spot after scoring more goals. Like Burnley OPR are at 14/1 to win the league, but have a lower Season Points spread of 66.5-68.5; in comparison, Charlton are in the bottom three, at a spread of 53-55. The Hoops look set for the win, at a QPR/Charlton (h) spread of 0.05-0.25.

Continuing the trend of former Premier League sides, Cardiff had a pretty dismal 2014/15 season given that it was a) their first season back in the Championship, a league that b) they had won by 8 points back in 2012/13. It appears that their first foray into the top flight took it out of the Welsh side, and they finished in 11th with 62 points; they take on their fellow 2014/15 Premier League rejects Fulham on Saturday. The Cottagers were worse than Cardiff last season, finishing in 17th on 52 points. Going into 2015/16 and neither fare too well with their Season Points, with Cardiff’s 60-62 edging out Fulham’s 57-59. The Welsh side is looking at all 3 points, at a Cardiff/Fulham Goal Supremacy spread of 0.3-0.5.

A bit less exciting is Birmingham vs Reading. Reading may have finished in 19th last season, but fans will instead remember 2014/15 as the year they reached an FA Cup, losing to Arsenal in heart-breaking fashion. Yet, regardless of that cup form they could never translate that into strong league performances, and go into the new season at a Points spread of 58.5-60.5. Birmingham were superficially better, finishing in 10th with 63 points but a long way off a play-off place; they have a Season Points spread of 54.5-56.5. Despite this lower long term spread, the Blues are expected to use their home advantage, at a Birmingham/Reading Goal Supremacy spread of 0.1-0.3.

We are now moving into the realm of League One promotees, with third tier champions Bristol City taking on Sheffield Wednesday. The Robins won League One by 9 points last season, but are unlikely to progress much further than the middle of the table, with a Season Points spread of 62.5-64.5, barely above Wednesday’s 62-64 after the Sheffield side’s 60 point tally left them basically equidistant between relegation and the play-offs. Whilst there is not much between them, our traders feel that it will all be too much for the newbies, offering a Sheffield Wednesday/Bristol City Goal Supremacy spread of 0.15-0.35.

The other automatically promoted League One side was MK Dons, who travel to Rotherham on Saturday. The Milton Keynes side beat Preston for second place by a mere 2 points, largely due to the latter’s form fumbling towards the end of the season. Rotherham, on the other hand, were deducted 3 points to end up with a tally of 46, last season due to fielding an ineligible player, meaning their proximity to relegation was slightly exaggerated. Neither looks likely to set the league alight, with MK Dons’ Season Points spread of 59-61 at least better than Rotherham’s league low of 51-53. Despite the gulf in their long term spread out traders have found it too hard to call, offering a choice Rotherham/MK Dons Goal Supremacy spread of -0.1-0.1.



Then there is the huddle of top 8 sides that all missed out on promotion for one reason or another. Both Brentford and Ipswich finished on 78 points last season, in 5th and 6th respectively; they then both lost their play-off semi-finals. The Bees exited after losing to Middlesbrough 5-1 over 2 legs, whilst the Tractor Boys lost to eventual promotees Norwich 4-2. Brentford are expected to be up amongst the top 3 in 2015/16, with a Season Points spread of 72-74 alongside a fixed odds price of 9/1, with Ipswich a bit lower at 67-69. As per their Season Points spreads, the Bees are looking at a win, with a Brentford/Ipswich Goal Supremacy spread of 0.35-0.55.

Sitting just outside the play-off zone were Wolves, denied a space in the top 6 by goal difference after finishing on the same 78 points as Brentford and Ipswich. Their opponents Blackburn finished only 2 places below Wolves but with 11 fewer points; however they did reach the FA Cup quarter-finals, forcing a replay out of Liverpool. Wolves are looking at a similar finish with a Season Points spread of 68-70, whilst Blackburn have a fairly limp 60-62 spread. Yet that home crowd advantage looks set to go in the Rovers favour, at a Blackburn/Wolves Goal Supremacy spread of 0.05-0.25.

Finally we turn to the sides that are duking it out for the top spot in this year’s Championship. Like Wolves, Derby were achingly close to a play-off spot; with 77 points, but a far superior goal difference to those teams above them, the Rams were one point away from securing a place in the top 6. They are narrowly in second on the Season Points table, at a 75-77, and have a joint first fixed odds price of 6/1. Their opponents, Bolton, are unlikely to be challenging for the top, however, with their 51 points tally leading to a Season Points spread of 53-55, leaving them favourites for the relegation battle. Obviously the Rams go into the weekend as favourites, at a Debry/Bolton (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.3-0.5.

Just above Derby, with a Season Points spread of 75.5-77.5 but the same 6/1 fixed odds, are Middlesbrough, who take on League One promotees Preston on Sunday. Boro lost the play-off final 2-0 to Norwich, but go into the new season with the expectation of promotion hanging over them once again. Preston, on the other hand, were emphatic in their play-off matches, winning both 4-0 after finishing 10 points above the 4th place Swindon. The Lilywhites have a slightly less exciting Season Points spread of 61-63, and are expected to lose their first game, with Spreadex offering a Middlesbrough/Preston (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.1-0.3.