Entering the final quarter of the season, can Lewis Hamilton extend his lead over Sebastian Vettel with a win at the Japanese Grand Prix this Sunday?

After faltering in the face of Vettel’s consistency in the first half of the season, Hamilton has gradually been able to overtake his German rival, extending his lead to 34 points last weekend. Vettel’s drop off seemed to begin at the British Grand Prix, where he finished in 7th to Hamilton’s 1st; since then the German has gone on to win just one race to the Brit’s 3.



The last two Grand Prix especially have set Vettel back. Having dominated in qualifying he was forced to retire in Singapore, after a misjudged defensive move from the German ended up taking himself, Ferrari teammate Kimi Raikkonen and Max Verstappen out of the race on the opening lap.

Then, in Malaysia, Vettel had to start at the back of the grid after he failed to put a time on the board during qualifying. And while he still managed to finish in 4th thanks to a remarkable bit of driving, the result nevertheless saw the title slip that bit further out of reach.

Bizarrely, Vettel almost messed up his trip to Japan before stepping foot in the country. On the slowing down lap in Malaysia the German collided with Williams’ Lance Stroll, raising the potentiality of a 5-place grid penalty at the Suzuka Circuit if his gearbox had to be replaced due to damage from the incident.

Luckily Ferrari confirmed on Wednesday that the device was ‘available’, therefore avoiding the handicap; unluckily this hasn’t much helped out Vettel on Spreadex’s Race Index. He still sits behind Hamilton, at a spread of 47-51 to the Brit’s 54-58, with respective fixed odds of 13/10 and 5/2.

The 20-year old Verstappen is then lurking just behind the frontrunners, at a Race Index spread of 41-15. The Red Bull racer won his second-ever Grand Prix at the Sepang International Circuit, a bright spot in a difficult season that had seen the Belgian-Dutch youngster forced to retire in 7 separate races.

As for the championship as a whole, Hamilton still understandably leads with a Drivers’ Season Index spread of 55-58 to Vettel’s 41-44 (where 1st place gets 60 points, 2nd place 40, 3rd place 30, etc.)