Sports Blog 04/09/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers, Friday 4th to Saturday 5th September 2015

It’s a busy few days for the home countries (well, home countries and Ireland), with some potentially decisive Euro 2016 qualifiers taking place over the weekend.

Most of the action takes place on Friday, with an especially important evening for Scotland and Ireland in Group D. First up sees a trip to Georgia for Scotland, at 5pm on Sky Sports 1; the Scots are 3rd in the group with 11 points, 2 behind Germany in 2nd and 3 behind Poland in 1st (with Spreadex offering a Germany/Poland Goal Supremacy spread of 1.5-1.7 for Friday’s tie). Their last match was a 1-1 draw against the Republic of Ireland, the side they are arguably battling for 3rd place with and a team they had already beaten 1-0 in their first meeting in the group. That draw put Scotland 2 points ahead of their Irish cousins, but with tough games against Germany and Poland to come.



Their opponents, meanwhile, have only managed to beat group whipping boys Gibraltar; in other words, they shouldn’t pose too much of a problem for Scotland. Leigh Griffiths’ will be chasing his first international goal after scoring 8 in 12 for Celtic this season, and sits at a Super Mega PGM spread of 20-24, whilst newly signed Tiger Shaun Maloney is 17/2 to score first after nabbing 4 in qualifying so far. Unsurprisingly our traders fancy the Tartan Terriers, offering a Scotland/Georgia (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.35-0.55 with a Total Goals spread of 2.05-2.25.

The Republic of Ireland then take on Gibraltar at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1. When the Gibraltar side visited Ireland last October the Irish put 7 past them, with a Robbie Keane hat-trick (giving him a Player Goal Minutes spread of 74-79) and a James McClean brace (at 5/1 to score first) completed by a Jordan Perez own goal and a strike from Wes Hoolahan.



Yet a John O’Shea own goal in their last game robbed them of victory against the Scots, meaning Ireland need Scotland to slip up in the final 4 games AND ideally need to get something against Poland and/or Germany to stand a chance of qualifying. At least Friday’s game shouldn’t give Ireland any trouble; Gibraltar are the only side in the group without a single point and, more embarrassingly, have only scored one goal in 6 goals whilst shipping a colossal 34. Give those fairly ludicrous stats, the Boys in Green sit at an absurdly high Ireland/Gibraltar (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 4.55-4.85 with an equally astonishing Total Goals spread of 5.5.3.

The other Brit-interesting game on Friday sees a nice trip to the Faroe Islands for Northern Ireland at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 5. Like the rest of the home countries, Northern Ireland have had an impressive qualifying run so far. Romania and Hungary are bother ranked higher than Northern Ireland’s 41st, at 7th (!!!) and 37th respectively, whilst Greece are memorably former winners in Euro 2004. Yet they have managed wins over Hungary, Greece, Finland and the Faroe Islands (more on that later), and whilst they lost their game in Romania, a 0-0 draw in the home tie leaves them on 13 points to the Tricolorii’s 14 and well on their way to qualifying for their first European championship ever.



With 6 points, however, Faroe Islands have been impressive in their own way, especially considering they are the 4th smallest UEFA country by population. Two victories over a floundering Greece have kept the minnows’ hopes of qualifying alive, something that will be immeasurably boosted by a home win this evening. However, as mentioned Northern Ireland won the first tie 2-0, with goals from Gareth McAuley and Kyle Lafferty (who has a Super Mega PGM spread of 24-29), leading our Spreadex traders to offer a Northern Ireland/Faroe Islands (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.65-0.85 with a Total Goals spread of 2.1-2.3.

Finally, Saturday brings with it the game most of you are interested in, as England travel to San Marino at 5pm on ITV. England are one of 2 sides (the other being Slovakia) that have won every game in qualifying so far, a trend that looks set to continue on Saturday afternoon. For a very long time San Marino were stuck in last place on the FIFA World Rankings; however, a thrilling 0-0 draw with fellow Group E’ers Estonia last November saw them creep up the chart, now sitting at 193rd out of the 208 teams listed.



Needless to say England’s performance won’t be judged by if they win, but by how much they win by. The target to beat is 5 scored, none conceded, the measure by which England bested San Marino last October, in a game that saw 5 different names on the scoresheet (granted, one of those was San Marino defender Alessandro Della Valle). The main focus, then, will be on Harry Kane and Wayne Rooney. Kane hasn’t scored yet in Tottenham’s dismal start to the season, something that already has the naysayers (rather prematurely) calling the youngster a one season wonder. A goal on Saturday would go some way towards easing the pressure piled on the striker’s shoulders, with Kane sitting at a Super Mega PGM spread of 87-102.

Rooney, meanwhile, has a potentially huge evening ahead of him. Despite a hat-trick against Club Brugge, doubts persist over the England’s captain’s abilities at the moment, doubts he could somewhat silence by becoming England’s all-time top goal-scorer on Saturday. Joint 2nd with Gary Linekar on 48 goals, a brace from Rooney would see him surpass Bobby Charlton’s 49, a record that has stood since 1970. Given the opponent, and the opportunity at hand, Rooney has a whopping Super Mega PGM of 114-134, with the Three Lions at an equally huge England/San Marino (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 5.1-5.3 and Total Goals spread of 5.25-5.45.