Sports Blog 05/08/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League/Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round, Wednesday 5th & Thursday 6th August 2015

It’s a bumper week for British clubs in Europe, as both the Champions League and Europa League host the 2nd legs of their respective 3rd qualifying rounds!

First up on Wednesday is a Champions League trip to Azerbaijan for Celtic, who face Qarabag at 5.30pm on BT Sport Europe. Fresh off a fairly bland 2-0 win over Ross County in their Scottish Premiership season open, Celtic go into the 2nd leg of their European tie aiming to protect a slender 1-0 lead. An 82nd minute goal from former Manchester City defender, and summer signing, Dedryck Boyata gave the Hoops the advantage ahead of Wednesday’s game, and means that an away goal could well seal Qarabag’s fate. Whilst things aren’t yet completely tied up against Azerbaijan champions, Celtic may now be more worried about the play-off draw on Friday, with the spectre of Manchester United, Lazio or Valencia potentially blocking the path to the Champions League proper.



However, such talk is perhaps to do Qarabag a disservice. They have only lost one of their last 18 home matches, and whilst this does come with the caveat that the Azerbaijan Premier League is hardly up there with the German, Spanish or English leagues, the same accusation could be levelled at Scotland’s top tier. Celtic’s fears over a heat-baked pitch could also play to the home side’s advantage, who will know doubt be more used to an unwelcoming surface than Scotland’s champions. Yet with last season’s top scorer Leigh Griffiths opening his account at the weekend, with an early penalty against Ross County (leaving him at a Super Mega PGM spread of 20-24 with 11/2 fixed odds to score first), Qarabag could suffer if Celtic kick it up a gear. The Hoops head into the match at a Celtic/Qarabag (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.1-0.3 with a Total Goals spread of 2.1-2.3.

We then turn to Thursday, with a trio of British clubs vying for a spot in the Europa League play-offs. The best performing British side in set of 1st legs was Southampton, who travel to the Netherlands to face Vitesse at 7pm on BT Sport 2. The Saints were emphatic in their first European match for 12 years, beating Vitesse 3-0 after goals from last season’s top scorer Granziano Pelle, Dusan Tadic and Shane Long. Given the proximity to the start of the season, with Southampton’s first game against Newcastle on Sunday, it will be interesting to see if Ronald Koeman rests any of his key players, especially since a solitary away goal will make the Saints’ lead almost insurmountable.



To give them credit, the Dutch side started well in the 1st leg, only to be undone by Pelle’s 36th minute opener. They undoubtedly have a tough task ahead of them on Thursday, but backed by a jubilant home crowd the Vitas have only lost once at the GelreDome in 20 games, a feat somewhat more impressive that Qarabag’s aforementioned form given the comparative strength of the Eredivisie. However, even a reduced Southampton side should be able to hold onto their significant lead, and the Saints travel Arnhem with a Southampton/Vitesse (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.1-0.3 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.7-2.9.

Things are likely to be a bit tougher for the other English side in the Europa League qualifying, as West Ham fly to Romania to face Astra Giurgiu, at 7pm on BT Sport Europe. The home leg at Upton Park didn’t go quite according to plan; an excellent first half saw the Hammers with a 2-0 lead after goals from Enner Valencia and Mauro Zarate. However, a 59th minute second yellow for defender James Collins saw West Ham significantly shaken, something exacerbated by an injury to Valenca that could leave the Ecuadorian out for 4 months. A 72nd minute strike from Astra’s Fernando Boldrin, and a dismal debut own goal from Angelo Ogbonna, then left the game as 2-2 at the final whilst but with the Romanian side nabbing those all-important away goals.



This frustrating situation is made all the worse for West Ham as they face an unenviable season-opener against Arsenal, at the Emirates, on Sunday. Forced to choose between a strong start to the season or edging closer to Europa League qualification, it looks like Slaven Bilic is set to pick the former, with reports suggesting the new manager will risk fielding a weaker side. However, our Spreadex traders have faith the Hammers can get a result, if only just, at a West Ham/Astra Giurgiu (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.05-0.25 with a Total Goals spread of 2.45-2.65.

Finally we come to Aberdeen, who host Kairat Almaty at the Pittodrie Stadium on Thursday. Despite losing their first leg 2-1, the Dons arguably have less to do than West Ham following their draw. Aberdeen were 2-0 down within the first 22 minutes of their trip to Kazakhstan after goals from Mikhail Kakaev and Bauyrzhan Islamkhan. However, a 69th minute goal from Kenny McClean gave the Scottish side a vital away goal, and leaves them with a lot less to do back at home.



Aberdeen are well prepared for Thursday’s match following a tight 1-0 win over Dundee United, who finished 5th to the Dons’ 2nd last season. Kairat’s away form, meanwhile, has been mixed so far in qualifying; the Kazakhstan bronze medallists won 2-0 in Serbia, securing a 4-1 first round victory over Red Star Belgrade, before losing 2-1 to Alashkert in Armenia, a loss that was more than compensated for by a 3-0 home win. Our traders are expecting the Scottish side to do what’s needed, and are offering an Aberdeen/Kairat Goal Supremacy spread of 0.25-0.45 with a Total Goals spread of 2.35-2.55.