Sports Blog 05/05/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League Semi-Final 1st Leg, Juventus vs Real Madrid, Tuesday 5th May 2015

Europe’s premier football competition is slowly coming to a close, with the first of the Champions League semi-finals taking place tonight as Real Madrid take a trip to Turin at 7.45pm on ITV.

Tonight could be frustrating for the Spanish side, as the free-scoring Madrid face the brick wall of Juventus. Real left it late in their quarter final 2nd leg against Atletico Madrid, with their 1-0 win being Real’s lowest scoring victory since the start of March. Yet a win is a win, and Real are currently unbeaten in 9, with only that first leg 0-0 draw against their Madridian brothers besmirching their otherwise perfect record. This leaves last year’s victors the favourites to keep the title at a Champions League Index spread of 73-76, where the winner receives 100 points, runner-up receives 75 points and a losing semi-finalist receives 50.



As always with Madrid, focus will be on Cristiano Ronaldo, who will have his own personal Champions League target in mind. Ronaldo has scored 8 times this tournament, the same as his fierce Barca rival Lionel Messi and one behind Shaktar’s Luiz Adriano, this season ‘s top scorer so far with 9 goals. Ronaldo will be desperate to pull ahead of the both of them, and is at a fixed odds price of 17/4 to score first tonight, alongside a Super Mega Player Goal Minutes spread of 28-33 (a prediction of the player’s total goal minutes where the 2nd goal’s minutes are doubled and the 3rd goal’s minutes are tripled, with all goals after only contributing their un-multiplied minutes).

Beyond the admittedly glittering form of Ronaldo (who has a staggering 53 goals this season), Madrid will be without their influential Frenchman Karim Benzema through injury, whilst Luka Modric continues his absence. However, Carlos Ancelotti’s men should be bolstered by the return of Gareth Bale, with the Welsh star at a Super Mega PGM spread of 11-15 and 15/2 to score first. Madrid also have their diminutive Mexican Javier Hernandez to supplement their scoring, with the quarter-final hero Javier at a Super Mega PGM spread of 11-15 and a 7/1 price to score first.

However, for all Real Madrid’s star-power, they have only just qualified in the last 2 round, and face stiff competition in the freshly anointed Serie A champions Juventus. With Real Madrid topping the Champions League Index, is it perhaps unsurprising that Juventus are at the bottom with a spread of 58-61. Yet Juve are unbeaten in their last 12 European home games, and could sneak a win if they can hold off tsunami of Real attack that is likely to appear, an eventuality that is boosted by the return of Giorgio Chiellini.



To focus solely on Juventus’ defence, however, is to do a disservice to the stars in their own attacking ranks. The thoroughly bearded Andrea Pirlo is set to return tonight, adding his extra bit of magic to the Juve midfield, whilst the Italian side’s top scorer Carlos Tevez, with 28 goals this season, is at a Super Mega PGM spread of 20-24 and a fixed odds price to score first of 6/1. Alvaro Morata isn’t far behind at 7/1, whilst Arturo Vidal, whose penalty in the quarter final first leg separated Juventus from Monaco, is at 9/1.

Given the tenacity of Juventus’ defence, and the fact that Madrid haven’t conceded an away goal in the Champions League this season for 444 minutes, Spreadex is offering a low Total Goals spread of 2.2-2.4. And considering the impressive home form of Juventus, and the star quality of Real Madrid, our Spreadex traders are offering a choice Juventus/Real Madrid Goal Supremacy sports spread betting quote of -0.1-0.1, with our clients favouring the Spanish side.