After months of an arduous nominee selection process, name-calling in the press, and noxious comments from a certain bequiffed ‘billionaire’, the US presidential election officially got underway last week with the first of the televised debates.

Hilary Clinton arguably got the best of Donald Trump in the face-off on September 26th, bringing to an end the gradual decline in the polls the Democratic nominee had seen following her pneumonia scare and the negative headlines this generated. The latest CNN/ORC survey, taken before the VP debate on October 4th, put Clinton 5 points ahead, with 47% of the vote to Trump’s 42%. That result does come with the caveat, however, that there is still a lot of ground to cover between now and the vote on November 8th, leaving plenty of time for the American people to change their collective mind.



For example, in the week following the presidential debate Trump suffered a flurry of scandals (a phrase that accurately sums up his entire campaign so far) that seem to have hurt his standing in the eyes of the undecided. These controversies include the fact that the ostensibly charitable Trump Foundation has been ordered to stop soliciting donations in New York following reports it had not obtained the rights to do so, a 3am Twitter rant attacking former Miss Universe Alicia Machado and, most damningly, the most recent batch of evidence suggesting Trump has avoided paying tax for years.

Clinton, then, heads into Sunday’s second presidential debate with the upper hand, not only in the polls but in Spreadex’s election spreads and fixed odds prices. Interestingly, however, at this early stage in the campaign proper the majority of Spreadex’s clients have stumped for Trump. The clearest instance of this has been in relation to the Winning Party spread, a binary market where the triumphant party receives 100 points and the losing party 0; Spreadex’s clients have largely opted for the Republicans at 22.2-29.5 over the Democrats at 69.2-77.8. Not only that, but there has been more interest in the Trump Electoral College Votes spread of 219-229 (out of a possible 538) than Clinton’s 309-319, as well as Trump’s 12/5 fixed odds price to be next President to Clinton’s 3/10.

This preference, of course, can be explained as Spreadex’s clients seeking to find the greatest opportunity for profit, something backed up by the relatively small stake sizes accompanying each position. However, it must be noted that on the eve of the Brexit referendum there was a similarly stark difference between Remain’s (i.e. Clinton’s) spreads and Leave’s (i.e. Trump’s) corresponding prices, and we all know how that turned out.