Put the kettle on because football’s coming home, with England taking on Sweden at 3pm on Saturday.

Tuesday night was a ROLLERCOASTER, a nasty, gritty game that ended with a nation peeking at penalties from behind their hands. It all seemed pre-determined: an England side dumped out of yet another international tournament by an errant spot kick or two. But then Jordan Pickford flung his hand up. And then Eric Dier walloped the ball into the back of the net. And they’d done it, booting out an unsporting Colombia with England’s first ever penalty shootout victory at a World Cup.



Next up is Sweden, a rock solid team who’ve only conceded 2 goals in Russia, both coming in their unlucky group stage draw against Germany. They may not be flashy, but they’ve very hard to beat, grinding out wins over South Korea and, in the last-16, Switzerland, while showing a bit more quality in a 3-0 win over Mexico.

As he has been in every game he has played, Harry Kane could well be the difference-maker on Saturday. With 6 goals in 3 games – yes, 3 from the penalty spot, whatever – he is leading the charge for the Golden Boot, and sits at a promising Super Mega PGM of 46-53. In comparison, the Swedes highest rated forward, Marcus Berg, is yet to score, and sits at a spread of 12-16.

It is tempting to get carried away; after all, England are at an Outright Index spread of 54.5-57.5, only a smidge behind Brazil’s 55-58. But Gareth Southgate’s likely lads should be able to make it to the semis, with Spreadex offering an England/Sweden Goal Supremacy spread of 0.5-0.7 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2-2.2.

Of course, before all that there are a few pretenders to deal with. The quarter-finals kick off on Friday with a tasty little tie, as France face Uruguay at 3pm. In the most exciting fixture of the last-16, France broke Lionel Messi’s heart with a romping, if defensively questionable, 4-3 win over Argentina. Kylian Mbappe was the undoubted star of that meeting, scoring twice within 4 minutes just after the half hour mark to take is tournament tally to 3. Yet the PSG forward is going into the quarters at a Super Mega PGM of 22-27, the same as Olivier Giroud and behind Antoine Griezmann at 29-35.



As for Uruguay, they upset the OTHER best player in the world, dumping out Ronaldo’s Portugal following a 2-1 victory in Sochi. It was Edison Cavani grabbing the headlines that day, his brace leaving him with a Super Mega PGM of 16-20. That’s still shy of Luis Suarez’s 23-28, however, despite the PSG ace having one more goal than his country mate. As defensively sound as they gifted going forward, the South Americans may still come up short, with Spreadex offering a France/Uruguay Goal Supremacy spread of 0.4-0.6 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2-2.2.

Friday night then sees the pick of the round, with favourite Brazil grappling with top scorers Belgium at 7pm. It’s safe to say that Brazil are yet to soar in the way many people expected. They haven’t been bad by any means; 3 wins – including a last-16 victory over Mexico – 1 draw and just 1 goal conceded. Yet they’ve also only scored 7 times, something of a surprise for a side containing Neymar. The pre-tournament Golden Boot favourite has only found the back of the net twice so far, though that admittedly hasn’t damaged his Super Mega PGM standings, the forward at a spread of 38-44.



Belgium, meanwhile, have been as free-scoring as you’d expect, bagging 12 goals in their 4 games. Yet there are a few caveats. Two-thirds of those goals came against Panama and Tunisia; and more importantly, they were forced to come back from 2-0 behind against Japan to reach the quarters in the final minute of injury time. Still, Romelu Lukaku remains in the running for the Golden Boot with 4 goals, and sits at a Super Mega PGM of 24-29. As for the match itself, the World Cup experts have the edge, at a Brazil/Belgium Goal Supremacy spread of 0.3-0.5 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.5-2.7.

Finally Saturday evening will reveal the last semi-finalist, with Russia looking to crush Croatian dreams at 7pm. Pulling off the shock of the last-16, the hosts managed to knock out Spain on penalties, scoring all 4 of their spot-kicks as Koke and Iago Aspa missed theirs. Previously unfancied it’s now not unthinkable that they could reach the final.



One of the best sides during the group stages, beating Nigeria, Argentina and Iceland to secure all 9 points, Croatia were far from their peak against Denmark. A penalty miss from Luka Modric during normal time helped lead to a pretty shoddy shootout, with Croatia eventually beating the Danes 3-2. They should still have it in them to triumph in Sochi, with Spreadex offering a Croatia/Russia Goal Supremacy spread of 0.25-0.45 alongside a Total Goals spread of 1.95-2.15.