Can Wales keep the dream alive in their Euro 2016 semi-final against Portugal, at 8pm on ITV?

Not since Greece’s triumph in 2004 (or, perhaps, Iceland’s dismissal of England last week) has there been such a heart-warming story at a major international tournament as Wales’ rise and rise. From topping Group B to besting Northern Ireland in a tight last 16 game in Paris the Euro-debutantes were already heading into their quarter-final against on a high, ready to face their toughest test yet: Belgium’s ‘golden generation’.

Things didn’t start exactly to plan, a dominant opening spell for Marc Wilmots’ men culminating in an opener for Radja Nainggolan. Yet Wales didn’t panic, and less than 20 minutes later captain Ashley Williams had equalised with a thumping header, sending the teams into half time at 1-1. Chris Coleman’s side kicked it up a gear in the 2nd half; 10 minutes after the restart a wondrous Cruyff turn from Hal Robson-Kanu gave the Welsh the lead, before substitute Sam Vokes sealed Wales’ place in the semis minutes before the final whistle.



However Wales’ victory came at a cost. Second competition yellows for Ben Davies and Aaron Ramsey sees them ruled out of Wednesday’s game in Lyon, the latter a huge blow given the Arsenal man has arguably been the country’s best player with the joint most assists in the competition as a whole. That puts even more pressure on Gareth Bale, who heads to Lyon with a Super Mega PGM spread of 26-31. The Real Madrid star has 3 goals and 1 assist, and will be instrumental in Wales’ chances of reaching the final. As for however much they have impressed so far the country are still seen as least likely to lift the Henri Deluanay Trophy, with an Outright Index spread of 60-63 (where the losing semi-finalists get 50 points, the runner-up 75 and the winner 100) alongside a fixed odds price of 8/1.

As for Portugal, they have had a far more ignoble path to the semi-finals. Finishing in 3rd in a group that contained Hungary, Iceland and Austria the Fernando Santos’ side went on to face Croatia in the last 16, the pair putting on one of the worst displays of the entire tournament before a Ricardo Quaresma goal clinched a quarter-final spot for the Portuguese in extra time. Things failed to improve in the next round against Poland, the game going all the way to penalties after a 1-1 draw. Obviously Portugal prevailed, leaving the country in the curious position of having reached the semis without winning a single game in 90 minutes.

Yet despite being the worst side left in the competition the more experienced Portugal are still favoured by the first time semi-finalists, Spreadex offering a Portugal/Wales Goal Supremacy spread of 0.35-0.55 with a Total Goals spread of 2.1-2.3.

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