After Sunderland’s narrow win against Newcastle at the weekend took them further away from the relegation zone, there is another tight battle at the bottom of the table this Tuesday evening when Aston Villa host QPR.

In terms of our Spreadex Relegation Index, where the bottom side are awarded 50 points, the second to bottom 25 and the third to bottom 10, QPR sit atop the pile at a spread of 24-27. Despite being in 19th and 3 points above 20th place Leicester, the latter have a game in hand, even if that game in hand is against league leaders Chelsea, and have shown their mettle against bigger sides than the Hoops. Sitting in 17th place, Aston Villa are on 28 points, only 2 above 18th place Burnley and 3 over QPR themselves; this leaves them at a Relegation Index spread of 3-6, compared to Leicester’s 21-24, Burnley’s 14-17, Hull’s 6-11 and Sunderland’s 5-8.

A win tonight would see Villa on 31 points and in 15th; this would leave a nice buffer zone between them and the relegation zone they are currently placed so precariously above. QPR, on the other hand, would jump to level on points with Villa is they scored an away victory, and if they won by a deficit of 3 goals or more would actually leapfrog Villa and take their place at 17th.



Over at Villa Park the Sherwood revolution hasn’t been unequivocally positive. In his 8 games in charge, Sherwood has won four and lost four, seeing Villa progress to the FA Cup semi-final, but fail to fully escape the gravitational pull of the relegation battle due to two of those four wins coming in the domestic cup. A spirited but lacking loss against Manchester United at the weekend summed things up; however, Villa have done what they needed to in important bottom half battles against West Brom and Sunderland and will fancy their chances against QPR.

Whilst both Aston Villa and QPR have won 7 league games, QPR have only managed to draw 4 of their games this season, the lowest amount of any team in the league and one of the key reasons why a team like Sunderland, with only 5 wins but 14 draws, sit above them. Yet a 4-1 win against 14th place West Brom at the weekend will have given the Hoops confidence, with that match being the first time they have scored 4 goals in 2014/15 as well as their biggest win margin this season.



Villa will be missing Alan Hutton, Scott Sinclair and Ashley Westwood through injury, whilst QPR may sorely miss Eduardo Vargas, out for the rest of the season after damaging his knee against the Baggies. Up front neither side have lit the league on fire; however, QPR’s star man might be the differing factor between the two sides. For Villa, Christian Benteke is on 7 goals at 7/2, whilst Gabriel Agbonlahor is on 6 goals at 13/2 and Andreas Weimann is on 4 goals at 8/1. In comparison, QPR’s Charlie Austin has scored 16 goals this season and is at 5/1 to score first, with Bobby Zamora trailing far behind on 3 goals at 9/1.

It should be a very tight game tonight, with our Spreadex traders giving the Villains a narrow advantage at an Aston Villa/QPR Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.35-0.55 with a Total Goals spread of 2.35-2.55. Even our clients are split between the two sides, with Aston Villa and QPR receiving near-equal support. One thing is likely; given the important of tonight’s game it could be a very scrappy affair, which is why Spreadex is offering a Bookings spread of 48-52.