Can hosts France join Portugal in the Euro 2016 final on Sunday, or will world champions Germany get in their way?

After showing flashes of brilliance in the group stages and having to wait until the 2nd half to shine against Ireland in the last 16, France finally blossomed in their quarter-final against Iceland. Goals from Olivier Giroud (who actually nabbed 2), Paul Pogba, Dimitri Payet and Antoine Griezmann gave Didier Deschamps’ side a 5-2 victory over the Euro-debutantes, an emphatic display that was arguably up there with the best of the tournament so far.



That flurry of quarter-final goals also leaves a trio of Frenchmen chasing the Golden Boot. Griezmann leads the pack with 4 goals and 2 assists, with Giroud just 1 goal behind his teammate; both head to Marseille this Thursday with a Super Mega PGM of 19-23. Dmitri Payet, who has a Super Mega PGM of 13-17, is also in with an outside chance; he has the same 3 goals and 2 assists as Giroud, but after having played 77 minutes more than the Arsenal star.

Despite the presence of Thomas Muller and Mario Gomez (who misses the rest of the tournament through injury) Germany haven’t been quite as gifted upfront as the French, scoring 7 goals to the hosts’ 11. In fact Muller, 3rd top scorer in the Bundesliga last season with 20 goals, still hasn’t found the back of the net, though he does go into the semi-final with the best Super Mega PGM spread from either country at 20-24.



Where France have at points stumbled, Germany’s progression to the quarter-final was almost stereotypically efficient. No goals were conceded in their first 4 games, the pinnacle being a 3-0 thwacking of a woeful Slovakian side. Yet things were a bit trickier for Joachim Low’s side in the quarters themselves, forced to a dramatic penalty shoot-out against Italy after Mesut Ozil’s opener was cancelled out as Leonardo Bonucci converted Jerome Boteng’s idiotically given away spot kick.

It will be interesting to see what kind of game we get on Thursday night, the free-flowing football shown against Slovakia and Iceland, or the cagey display Germany put in against the Italians. Regardless it’s an incredibly close call, with the hosts just about having the advantage at an Outright Index spread of 69.5-72.5 to Germany’s 69-72 alongside a France/Germany Goal Supremacy spread of 0-0.2.

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