Sports Blog 07/10/2015: Formula 1 Preview – Russian Grand Prix, Friday 9th to Sunday 11th October

It’s the second ever Russian Grand Prix of the modern era this weekend, with Lewis Hamilton looking to tighten his grip on the championship.

Whilst the Mexican Grand Prix (to be the 17th race of the season) has had to wait for 13 years for a return, racing fans in Russia had to wait 100 years for Formula 1 to come back to the Great Bear. 2014 saw the first Russian Grand Prix, held at the (built for the Winter Olympics) Sochi Autodrom, since 1914, and, somewhat unsurprisingly, was won by Lewis Hamilton.

That Sochi-victory was part of Hamilton’s career-best run of 5 consecutive wins, a run that helped him secure the 2014 F1 title, and a record he could beat if he wins the final 5 races of the season. The Brit won his 8th grand prix of the season at the end of September, his victory in Japan a quick rebound from his retirement in Singapore, leaving him at as an emphatic 1/50 odds on favourite for the championship.

That win sets up a potentially record-breaking end to the season for Hamilton. Victory in each of the final 5 races (with the Brit at a Race Index spread of 62-66 going into the Russian weekend) would see him not only surpass his own aforementioned consecutive wins personal best, but equal the 13 wins in a season record shared by Michael Schumacher (in 2004) and Sebastian Vettel (in 2013).



That may sound a tall order, but Hamilton managed to win 6 of the 7 final races in 2014, with a 2nd place finish in Brazil the only blot on an otherwise spotless record. The addition of a race at the unfamiliar Autodromo Hermanos Rodriquez in Mexico (where Hamilton could clinch the championship if he is victorious in Russia) may complicate matters, but with the title all but won the Brit will be gunning for some records of his own.

The man that could stand in Hamilton’s way is his Mercedes teammate Nico Rosberg. At 229 points to Hamilton’s 277 (and at Drivers’ Season Points Index spreads of 314-318 and 380-384 respectively) Rosberg has been in the shadow of his frenemy for the past 2 seasons, only managed to steal 1st place finishes in Spain, Monaco and Austria this season. The German was runner-up in the inaugural race in Sochi last year, and will be aiming to go one better, at a Race Index spread of 50-54.

The only driver to win a race outside of the Mercedes duo is Sebastian Vettel, at a Race Index spread of 42-46 and at an outsider’s 25/1 to win the championship (Rosberg is at 20/1). Vettel is breathing down Rosberg’s neck on the Drivers’ Season Points Index, with a spread of 306-310, and sits a mere 11 points behind his German countryman, with his victories in Malaysia, Hungary and, most recently, Singapore equalling Rosberg’s 1st place finishes.

Beyond that top 3 are the handful of drivers who have managed a podium finish this season. Kimi Raikkonen, coming in 3rd in Singamore, is at a Race Index spread of 29-32, whilst Valtteri Bottas, getting the bronze in Russia last year, is at 24-27. Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat, the only non-Hamilton/Rosberg/Vettel drivers to finish 2nd in a race this season, are at Race Index spreads of 20-23 and 17-20 respectively, whilst Felipe Massa is at 23-26 and Romain Grosjean is at 6-8.