Sports Blog 07/09/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers, Monday 7th September 2015

It’s the second set of September qualifiers for Scotland, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, and despite sitting in the 2 tightest groups in qualifying all three nations are still more than in the running for a spot at Euro 2016.

First up is easily the toughest tie of the three games, as Scotland host Germany at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1. Whilst facing the current World Cup holders is never an easy feat, especially given the depth and quality of Germany’s squad, Scotland have made things even more difficult by losing to Georgia on Friday. What should have been a relatively routine win instead was a lifeless performance that saw the Scots unable to overcome a solitary first half goal from a team ranked 147th in the world. This means that Scotland desperately need a result against Germany (and Poland, with 3 points all but guaranteed in their final game against Gibraltar) to keep up the pace in the qualifying round’s Group of Death.



Germany, meanwhile, have recovered from a slow start that saw them lose to Poland and draw against Ireland in their second and third games (their first being a 2-1 win over Scotland in Dortmund), and after beating Poland 3-1 in Frankfurt on Friday top Group D by 2 points. It helps that the world champions have Thomas Muller in fine form, top scorer in the group with 6 goals, including a brace against Scotland and the opener on Friday; unsurprisingly the Bayern Munich man is 3/1 favourite to score first with a Super Mega PGM spread of 45-52. Scorer of the World Cup winning goal Mario Gotze, meanwhile, got his own brace against Poland, and is at 17/4 to score first.

Rather understandably, our Spreadex traders aren’t holding out too much hope for Scotland on Monday evening, offering a Germany/Scotland (h) Goal Supremacy spread pf 1.1-1.3 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.75-2.95.

Scotland’s potentially qualification-derailing loss on Friday was a great boon to the Republic of Ireland, who now have to defeat an upbeat Georgia themselves at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 2. Their 4-0 victory over the sorrowful Gibraltar, complete with a Robbie Keane brace, combined with that Scottish loss sees Ireland on 12 points in 3rd, 2 behind Poland and 1 ahead of their Celtic cousins. However with the unenviable task of hosting Germany and travelling to Warsaw to play Poland in their final 2 games in October, a win against Georgia is a must.



As it has been for nearly 2 decades, the star of Ireland’s qualifying campaign has been Robbie Keane; despite being in the twilight years of his playing career the LA Galaxy forward (where, incidentally, Keane has been tearing it up in the MLS) has nabbed 5 goals so far, making his 23 goals in European qualifiers the highest total ever. As a reward for his fine form, Spreadex has made him 13/5 favourite to score first with a Super Mega PGM spread of 42-49.

All this talk of Ireland perhaps does a disservice to Georgia, who of course did manage to surprise Scotland on Friday, in the process effectively saving themselves from elimination. They have an incredibly slender outside chance of reaching the play-offs, with a winnable match against Gibraltar followed by a decidedly tougher trip to Germany comprising their final 2 games. However, Georgia have only scored 5 goals in the entire qualifiers, equal to Keane’s individual haul, meaning our traders are favouring the Boys in Green at a Republic of Ireland/Georgia Goal Supremacy spread of 1.05-1.25 with a Total Goals spread of 2.2-2.4.

Finally, looking to the other group with a single team yet to qualify, Northern Ireland host Hungary at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 5. Following a confident 3-1 win over the Faroe Islands on Friday Northern Ireland are only one win away from not only qualifying for Euro 2016, but their first European Championship ever. Saturday’s aforementioned away win against the Faroe Islands was complete with another 2 goals for Kyle Lafferty, taking his total to 6 in qualifying and meaning he has scored in every game Northern Island have scored in (i.e. every game that wasn’t against Romania). Considering Lafferty is struggling to get into the Norwich City side his European haul is impressive, and leaves him has 5/1 favourite to score first with a Super Mega PGM spread of 21-26. Whilst Northern Ireland will play the already eliminated, and truly awful, Greece and the just-about-hanging on Finland in their final 2 games, a win against Hungary would remove the chance for any heart-breaking last minute slip-ups, and allow Michael O’Neill’s side to focus on topping the group.



Not that Hungary will be a walkover. Northern Ireland may have been victorious in the opening game in Budapest, but since then Hungary haven’t lost once, only dropping points with 2 draws against Romania (the second of which doing the Irish a huge favour) and one against Greece. It leaves them only 4 points behind Northern Ireland and currently in line for a play-off spot; however, with easily winnable games against the Faroe Islands and Greece in October, there is still a lot of pressure on both Northern Ireland and Romania to hold onto their respective 1st and 2nd place finishes.

It could be a momentous evening in Belfast this Monday evening, but it likely won’t be an easy one; our Spreadex traders only just fancy the Irish, at a Northern Ireland/Hungary Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0-0.2 with a Total Goals spread of 1.95-2.15.