Sports Blog 08/10/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers, Thursday 8th October 2015

The final batch of group stage Euro 2016 qualifiers kick off this Thursday, with 3 of the home countries (well, home countries and Republic of Ireland) vying for a spot in France.

Most of the excitement will surround Group D; Scotland are first up, hosting Poland at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 2. If one assumes the Scots can beat Gibraltar in their final game, with the European minnows potentially set to take the title for worst ever European qualifying attempt from San Marino, then Gordon Strachan’s side must get something against Poland to stand a chance of nabbing the group’s play-off spot. With 12 goals in 18 games for Celtic this season Leigh Griffiths, at 13/2 to score first, will be desperate to start, but faces competition from Steven Fletcher, at 15/2, Strachan’s preferred striker throughout qualifying.



The entire Poland squad has impressed during this qualifying campaign, and a victory in Scotland (and a German win against Ireland) would see them nab one of the group’s two automatic spots in France. The focus on Thursday, then, will likely be on how much damage Robert Lewandowski, the qualifiers’ top scorer with 10 goals and in truly ridiculous form for Bayern Munich with 16 goals in 11 games, can do to the Scots. The near-perfect Pole goes into the match at 5/1 to score first with a Super Mega PGM of 26-31.

With a transcendent Lewandowski leading the front line the Scots face an unenviable task, one our Spreadex traders just don’t quite think they are up for, offering a Poland/Scotland (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0-0.2 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.3-2.5.

The other big Group D game, one so vital to Scotland’s own qualifying hopes, sees an equally difficult task for the Republic of Ireland, who take on Germany at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1. Ireland are achingly close to qualification, but have the horrible luck of facing both Germany and Poland in their final 2 games. Two draws or one win will be enough to get a play-off spot; in fact, even losing both of their final games could see them keep the third place spot if Scotland fail to get anything against Poland. With everything hanging precariously in the balance extra pressure will be on (new dad) Robbie Keane who, after scoring 5 goals in qualifying, is at a Super Mega PGM of 15-19.



Germany, on the other hand, are guaranteed a place in the play-offs at the very least, and just need a point against Ireland to grab one of the automatic spots. And if Poland have Lewandowksi, then Germany have the other half of Bayern Munich’s absurdly strong striking duo, with Thomas Muller, second only to his Polish teammate on 8 qualifying goals, at a Super Mega PGM of 48-56 alongside the none-too-shabby Mario Gotze, at a Super Mega PHM of 32-38.

Given the sheer depth of the German squad, and the rich vein of form found by Muller and Gotze, it is hard to see beyond a win for Joachim Low’s side, with Spreadex offering a Germany/Republic of Ireland (h) Goal Supremacy quote of 1.15-1.35 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.75-2.95.

Finally, Northern Ireland’s Group F situation is far simpler, with Michael O’Neill’s side looking to secure automatic qualification against Greece at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 5. All 3 points against Greece, or one tonight and one against Finland on Sunday, would see Northern Ireland reach France and, in the process, their first ever major international tournament. Yet the absence of Kyle Lafferty, only behind Lewandowski and Muller in qualifying goals, could make things slightly more difficult for a Northern Ireland side that have been somewhat reliant on his presence.



Greece have been the footballing equivalent of their own country’s politics in qualifying; in other words, a complete disaster. Not one, but two losses against the Faroe Islands pretty much says everything you need to know about Greece’s attempt at qualifying, with 3 points from 3 draws all the former European champions could muster.

Given the relative lack of goals in Group F, our Spreadex traders are only expecting a narrow win for Northern Ireland, offering a Goal Supremacy spread of 0-0.2 alongside a Total Goals spread of 1.7-1.9.