Sports Blog 09/12/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 9th December 2015

With one Manchester side in and the other out, can Arsenal and Chelsea both make it through to the Champions League final 16?

Much like United on Tuesday Arsenal face the tougher task of the two London sides when they travel to Olympiakos at 7.45pm on BT Sport Europe. The Gunners need to beat the Greek champions by 2 goals, or win whilst scoring, to secure a place in the last 16 and, in the process, preserve Arsene Wenger’s record of reaching the second round of the Champions League for what would be the 16th season in a row. Yet they will have to do so without the central core of Alexis Sanchez, Santi Cazorla and Francis Coquelin who (among more than a few others) are all injured. Extra pressure, then, will be on Olivier Giroud who, on 10 goals, sits at a Super Mega PGM spread of 40-47. There is also another chance for Joel Campbell, who nabbed the opener against Sunderland last weekend, to impress, the Costa Rican at a Super Mega PGM of 14-18.



It will be interesting to see which Arsenal turns up on Wednesday evening. The Gunners had an incredibly mixed (and injury filled) November, starting the month with a miserable 5-1 defeat against Bayern Munich, before following that up with a draw against Tottenham and a loss at West Brom. Things improved with a vital victory over Dinamo Zagreb, only for their nascent momentum to be halted with a 1-1 draw in Norwich. However they entered December in style with a 3-1 win over Sunderland that, whilst not necessarily that much of an achievement, was still enough to leave them in 2nd in the Premier League.

In contrast Olympiakos are in enviably consistent form; Bayern Munich are the only side to have between them this season (with two wins over Dinamo Zagreb and, of course, one against Arsenal in the Champions League), their only other ‘slip up’ being a 2-2 draw against Platanias in the Greek Football Cup. In the Superleague Greece Olympiakos have been unstoppable, 36 points from 12 games leaving them top of the table with a 10 point surplus. Kostas Fortounis, top scorer on 10 goals, will be the one to watch and goes into Wednesday at a Super Mega PGM spread of 18-22, whilst Premier League fans may be interested to see how former West Brom forward Brown Ideye (on 6 goals for his new club) is faring, the Nigerian at 7/1 to score first.

Like against Monaco in the Round of 16 2nd leg last season, Arsenal have to meet a specific set of requirements on Wednesday evening. Our Spreadex traders think they can get the win, but at an Arsenal/Olympiakos (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.4-0.6 (alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.95-3.15) will it be enough?

In comparison Chelsea’s hosting of Porto at 7.45pm on BT Sport 2 is arguably slightly easier; or, it would have been if the Blues weren’t currently in free-fall. Chelsea only need a point against Mourinho’s former side to progress to the last 16, a result that once upon a time wouldn’t have caused much worry among those at Stamford Bridge. Yet despite only a few surface-level changes this season’s Chelsea are a completely different side from last year’s champions; staggeringly their most recent defeat to Bournemouth was the Blues’ 8th league loss of the season, leaving them in 14th and only 2 points above the 18th place Newcastle.



If anything the Champions League has actually provided something of a respite from Chelsea’s domestic woes, their 3 wins (granted 2 against Maccabi Tel-Aviv, who have scored 1 goal in 5 European games), 1 draw and 1 loss (ominously to Porto) a veritable wealth of form compared to their limp league performances. It has also been the competition where Chelsea have had the most successful going forwards (again, largely due to the presence of the Israeli champions), something that has been a major area of concern elsewhere. Top scorer Willian (at a Super Mega PGM of 12-16) only has 6 goals, 4 of which have come in Europe; the brutish Diego Costa, meanwhile, may have the best Super Mega PGM spread of 25-30, but has meagre 4 goal tally so far this season.

Like Olympiakos, however, Porto are in fierce domestic and European form. Unbeaten in the Primera Liga, only 2 points behind Sporting CP after drawing 1 more game than the league leaders, Porto’s similar run in the Champions League came to an end against Dynamo Kiev, losing 2-0 on home turf as the Ukrainians kept themselves in the competition. Interestingly, whilst a point may be enough to secure a place in the last 16 for Chelsea, if Dynamo Kiev beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv, something that is more than likely, Porto would need a win due to their weaker head-to-head record against the Ukrainian champions, something that may not bode well for the Blues.

There has been the feeling before most of Chelsea’s recent games, something between shock and awe, that surely their dismal run must end sometime soon. Our Spreadex traders tentatively think it may happen this evening, offering a Chelsea/Porto Goal Supremacy spread of 0.2-0.4 with a Total Goals spread of 2.35-2.55. Yet as has been shown time and again this season, this Chelsea side is unpredictable for all the wrong reasons.