Sports Blog 09/03/2016: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League Last 16 2nd Legs, Wednesday 9th March 2016

Snatching an all-important away goal in the Parc des Princes, can Chelsea overcome the odds and knockout PSG at 7.45pm on BT Sport Europe?

Since Guus Hiddink was appointed Chelsea have been on a run as good as the first half of their season was bad; that Champions League defeat in Paris last month was the first, and so far only, loss on the Dutchman’s updated Blues resume, the London side finally clawing their way back to the top half of the Premier League table (if only just) under his tenure. A propensity for draws (7 in 13 league games, most recently against Stoke) domestically has prevented Chelsea from climbing any higher, but they are immeasurably improved since Hiddink took over on December 19th. The regaining of form has been most fruitfully felt in the FA Cup, with Chelsea scoring 12 goals (and conceding only 2) in 3 games, with a quarter-final at Everton looming on Saturday.



One of the biggest boosts since Hiddink took back the reins has been the recovered form of Diego Costa, overcoming a dismal start to the season to become Chelsea’s top scorer with 14 goals in all competitions. The Spanish forward goes into Wednesday night with a Super Mega PGM of 26-31, with Willian (who has 5 goals in Europe so far this season) at 11-15 and Oscar (8 goals in total) at 12-16.

Chelsea are also perhaps facing PSG when the French champions are going through what could be argued is their first (minor) wobble of 2015/16. After winning 23 Ligue 1 games in 27 (and having already qualified for next year’s Champions League) PSG finally lost their first domestic game of the season, a 2-1 defeat away to Lyon that, admittedly, will have very little effect on a title race Laurent Blanc’s side already have sown up. Whilst they followed that loss with a Coupe de France quarter-final victory, last Saturday then saw PSG draw 0-0 against Montpellier, arguably making this the side’s worst period since they drew then lost back-to-back group stage games to Real Madrid.



Granted, this is clutching at straws; however, it does perhaps suggest that for all PSG’s success they might be seeing a brief lapse in concentration, something Chelsea could exploit on Wednesday. On the other hand they have Zlatan Ibrahimovic (with 30 goals and a Super Mega PGM of 39-45) and Edinson Cavani (17 goals and a Super Mega PGM of 28-33) at their disposal, so PSG probably aren’t too concerned about a few dropped points in the run up to the 2nd leg.

The current form of both sides, even with the relative gulf in difficulty between their two leagues, makes the teams too hard to separate, Spreadex offering a choice Chelsea/PSG Goal Supremacy spread of -0.1-0.1 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.602.8.

Wednesday’s other game involves two of the competition’s underdogs, as Zenit St. Petersburg host Benfica at 5pm on BT Sport Europe. A 91st minute winner from Jonas gave the Portuguese champions a slender lead in the 1st leg, shutting out Zenit from getting an important away goal. Since then Benfica have been unbeaten, winning 3 on the trot in the league to top the table by 2 points. Zenit, on the other hand, have had a rather limp return since their long winter break; following that Champions League loss with a 0-0 draw to Krasnodar, the Russian champions could then only manage an extra time win over Kuban Krasnodar in the Russian Cup. Yet Zenit haven’t yet lost at home in Europe this season, beating Lyon, Gent and Valencia in the group stages, leaving them with the advantage at a Zenit St. Petersburg/Benfica Goal Supremacy spread of 0.4-0.6 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.45-2.65.

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