Sports Blog 09/10/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers, Friday 9th to Sunday 11th October 2015

After tears of joy, for both the Republic and Northern Ireland, and of heartache, for Scotland, last night, it’s the turn of England and Wales to play their penultimate Euro 2016 qualifiers this weekend.

It is hard to imagine there will be many fireworks on Friday when England host Estonia at 7.45pm on ITV. England were the first team to reach France 2016, and are already guaranteed first place in Group E after holding onto the only unbeaten run in the entire qualifying campaign.

Arguably their safety, alongside an injury to Wayne Rooney, would suggest Roy Hodgson has room to experiment. Not that the England manager sees it that way, telling the BBC that the team is ‘not in experiment mode’. However, the aforementioned absence of Rooney does mean that Harry Kane (at a Super Mega PGM of 68-78) and Theo Walcott (at a Super Mega PGM of 53-61) are likely to get a bit longer on the pitch than normal. Walcott has been in decent form for Arsenal of late, playing in his preferred striker role; Kane, meanwhile, has only managed 2 goals for Tottenham this season, one of those being in the back of his own net against Swansea (though to be fair to the Spurs striker he has been better internationally, scoring 3 in his first 4 games for his country).



In contrast to what could be an (admittedly earned) blasé attitude from England, Friday’s game is significantly more important for Estonia. 2 wins in their final 2 games, and a specific configuration of results from Switzerland, Slovenia and Lithuania could see Estonia nab the group’s play-off space or, if things go really well, the second automatic spot. Yet they face an uphill battle; whilst they have only conceded 6 goals (the second best in the group after England), with only a late Wayne Rooney goal separating the two sides when they met a year ago, they have managed to score even less.

Estonia only have 4 goals to their name in this campaign, an uninspiring total that won’t exactly strike fear into the jubilant hearts of Roy Hodgson’s men. It means that, despite Estonia’s relative stinginess at the back, our Spreadex traders are expecting a healthy win for the home side, offering an England/Estonia Goal Supremacy spread of 2.25-2.45 alongside a Total Goals spread of 3.05-3.25.

Wales’ game on Saturday is a bit more high-stakes than England’s run out on Saturday, if only just; they travel to Bosnia-Herzegovina at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 2. Chris Coleman’s side only need a point from their penultimate match to secure a place in France, something they could have ensured already if they had managed to score against Israel in their 0-0 draw back in September. Yet with their talisman Gareth Bale fit after missing the last 2 weeks, and at a Super Mega PGM of 26-31 after having scored 6 goals in qualifying already, Wales will be hoping to have everything sorted before they host Andorra next week.



Standing in their way, however, is Bosnia-Herzegovina, desperate for a win to keep their hopes of qualifying alive. They can now only make the play-offs (and must be ruing their 2-1 opening loss against Cyprus), but are vying for that spot with Israel (2 points ahead of Bosnia but who face Belgium in their final game) and Cyprus (2 points behind, and who face Israel and Bosnia in their last 2 games). If Bosnia are to get anything it will likely be down to Edin Dzeko, the group’s top scorer on 7 goals and 7/2 fixed odd favourite to score first on Saturday.

And it looks like they have a chance; our traders think Chris Coleman and co might have to wait a bit longer to have their spot in France confirmed, offering a Bosnia/Wales Goal Supremacy spread of 0.5-0.7 with a Total Goals spread of 2.3-2.5.