Will it be Wales or the Republic of Ireland who nudge closer to the 2018 World Cup, at 7.45pm on Sky Sports Football?

Heartbreakingly only one of the two countries can reach Russia. Atop Group D with 18 points, Serbia are guaranteed at least 2nd place – beyond that it’s complicated. Victory for Wales will see them in the play-offs; combine that with a draw or loss for the Serbs against Georgia and Chris Coleman’s side may snatch automatic qualification.



If Monday’s game in Cardiff ends in a draw, however, then Wales’ fate is in the hands of a few other countries. In that eventuality, the Dragons would ideally need either a) Serbia to lose to Georgia, b) Croatia and Ukraine to draw their head-to-head battle (there are a few more snags with this route based on goals scored and fair play points, both things that could change in the course of the evening) or, most unlikely, c) Greece to fail to beat Gibraltar, a side who have conceded 43 goals in 9 games.

For Ireland things are a bit simpler. Win and they reach the play-offs; win and Serbia lose, they top the group and head straight to Russia. Draw or lose, and they’ll be watching from home next summer.

Both teams head into this final qualifier missing key men. Most notable is the absence of Gareth Bale, who is still out with the same calf injury that kept him from Wales’ trip to Georgia – where they won their first away qualifier without the Real Madrid star since 2009.

As for Ireland, forward Shane Long joins captain Seamus Coleman on the side-lines after picking up a knock in the 2-0 win over Moldova, though Martin O’Neill does benefit from the returning James McClean and Robbie Brady.

While neither side can afford being too cagey, it’s going to be tight, with the hosts favoured at a narrow Wales/Republic of Ireland Goal Supremacy spread of 0.2-0.4 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.05-2.25. It’s also worth keeping an eye on the Bookings spread, at 56-60, given Wales have 7 players one card away from missing the 1st leg of the (potential) play-offs.