Sports Blog 10/06/2015: Tournament Preview – Copa America 2015, Thursday 11th June to Saturday 4th July 2015

With Europe still scrambling for spaces in Euro 2016 this weekend, Latin America is ready for its own continental tournament as the 2015 Copa America begins on Thursday in Chile.

Spreadex is offering a host of different spreads and fixed odds opportunities throughout the tournament, including Index spreads of for all of the Groups as well as the tournament as a whole. For the Group Index, the winner receives 25 points, whilst 2nd place gets 10, 3rd place gets 5 and the bottom spot gets 0. There are similar rules for the Copa America Index 50-30-20-10: the tournament winner gets 50 points and the runner-up gets 30, whilst the losing semi-finalists get 20 each, the losing quarter-finalists 10 apiece, and zero for everyone else.



Over in Group A hosts Chile have a very manageable task ahead of them; their first match is against Ecuador. With a Copa America Index spread of 22-25 and a Group A Index spread of 18.25-19.75 Chile have vastly improved since their quarter-final exit in the 2011 tournament, a stage they haven’t gone past since 1999. They were incredibly unlucky to suffer a last 16 penalties defeat in the 2014 World Cup to Brazil after they have escaped a group that contained 2010 finalists Spain and the Netherlands. Chile were propelled in that tournament by Alexis Sanchez, who will likely be their talisman once more following a stellar first season at Arsenal, and a home crowd boost has them at 4/1 to win the cup.

Ecuador, on the other hand, were eliminated in the group stage of the World Cup, the same stage they were eliminated in the Copa America 2011, where they only managed a draw with Paraguay. However they face one of the easier groups, and sit at a middling Copa America Index spread of 9.5-11.5, Group A Index spread of 7.25-8.75. They may have to wait though before they get a result though, with La Roja the favourites at a Chile/Ecuador Goal Supremacy spread of 1.05-1.25 with a Total Goals spread of 2.4-2.6.

The second Group A opener sees one of the two non-CONMEBOL teams, Mexico, take on Bolivia. Mexico had an odd 2011 Copa America; they were made to field their 2012 under-23 Olympic team with 5 supplementary older players due to them being from a different footballing confederation. Then 8 of their squad were suspended a week before the tournament began for indiscipline, leading Mexico to lose all of their group stage games. They remain with an effective B-team for the 2015 tournament, but an easier group this year leaves them at a Copa America Index spread of 12-14 with a Group A Index spread of 9.25-10.75.

Bolivia had a similarly dismal 2011 tournament, only managing a solitary draw against Argentina to see them crash out in the group stages. Things aren’t looking much better this year, and La Verde look like the weakest team in perhaps the weakest group, putting them at a very low Copa America Index spread of 2-4 and a Group A Index spread of 2.5-3.5. Unsurprisingly this leaves the Mexican side, however diminished, the favourites at a Mexico/Bolivia Goal Supremacy spread of 1.05-1.25 with a Total Goals spread of 2.65-2.85.

Things get tougher in Group B, with the first game seeing tournament all-timers Uruguay face debutantes Jamaica. Uruguay at the most successful team in the Copa America’s history, based on tournament wins alone, taking the championship a record 15 times, including in 2011. Yet they were somewhat disappointing in the World Cup, even as they beat a limp England and Italy, exiting in the last 16 to Colombia. They are also, in a potentially decisive absence, without Luis Suarez, though they do have the more than capable feet of Edison Cavani as a replacement. The lack of Suarez has left them at a solid if unspectacular Copa America Index spread of 13-15 and a Group B Index spread of 9.75-11.25.

Luckily for Uruguay, their first opponents are Jamaica, ranked 65th in the world and basically only in the tournament after both Japan and China turned down an invitation. A dismal attempt at World Cup qualification was unsuccessful, but they did manage to win the Caribbean Cup on penalties. That meagre achievement hasn’t helped their odds and they have both the worst Copa America Index spread at 0.5-2 and the lowest Group B Index spread at 1-2. Uruguay should stroll to a win, and are at a Uruguay/Jamaica Goal Supremacy spread of 1.8-2 with a Total Goals spread of 2.9-3.1.



The other Group B sees the tournament tip take on 2011’s runners-up as Argentina face Paraguay. The Argies are the second most successful team in Copa America history with 14 wins, but jump to first when you factor in that they have finished second 12 times to Uruguay’s 6, leaving them at 2/1 to win the tournament. And whilst they haven’t won since 1993 they will be going into this tournament as heavy favourites following their World Cup final defeat. They do have a tough group, however, and weren’t exactly convincing in 2014 despite finishing second. The pressure will be on, and Messi and Aguero will have the weight of expectation on their backs; however the top teams should perform under pressure and Argentina have the best Copa America Index spread at a spread of 27.5-30.5 with a Group B Index spread of 20-21.5.

Whilst on paper this opening game for Argentina should be easy, Paraguay managed a surprise final in 2011 after knocking out Brazil in the quarter finals and Venezuela in the semis, before losing to 3-0 to Uruguay. Granted each knock out round was a 0-0 draw decided on penalties, but it’s still an impressive feat all the same. One imagines, given their group, Paraguay might have a tougher time of it this year, even if their Copa America Index spread of 8.5-10.5 and a Group B Index spread of 6.5-8 suggests they could give Uruguay a run for their money. The Messi-powered Argentina are fancied at a Goal Supremacy spread of 1.45-1.65, and considering they have put 12 goals past Paraguay in their past 3 meetings Spreadex is offering a Total Goals spread of 2.8-3.

Group C looks like a similarly tricky prospect to escape; first up sees Brazil face Peru. Since their dismal end to the World Cup, which saw them concede 10 goals in their final 2 games and slump to fourth against a back-drop of a heartbroken home-crowd, Brazil have won their past 9 games in a row, 5 of which have come against teams in this tournament, seeing them just behind Argentina at 3/1 to take the cup. With Neymar fresh off that treble-winning season at Barcelona Brazil will be looking to their front man for guidance, especially since they crumbled at the quarter final stage back in 2011. Given that they are in such strong form, and the fact, of course, that they are Brazil, the Canarinhos are at a Copa America Index spread of 24-27 and a Group C Index spread of 17.5-19.

Peru won’t be a walk-over, however, even if they do sit at a low Copa America Index spread of 4-6 and a Group C Index spread of 3.25-4.25. With a strong front line that sees Pizarro, Farfan and Guerrero at their disposal and a 2011 performance that saw them come third in the tournament, Los Incas are nothing to be sniffed at. And whilst they may struggle in a star-filled group, they should offer their money’s worth. Yet regardless Brazil have the advantage, at a Brazil/Peru Goal Supremacy spread of 1.9-2.1 with a high Total Goals spread of 3.15-3.35.

Finally, fan favourites Colombia take on Venezuela in the last group stage opener. After losing to Peru in the 2011 Copa America quarter-finals, Colombia had an incredibly impressive World Cup, topping their (fairly easy) group and beating Uruguay in the last 16, before seeing an unlucky defeat to Brazil in the quarter-finals. James Rodriguez was the stand-out, getting the Golden Boot despite playing 2 games less than mega-stars like Messi, Neymar and van Persie, and after a solid first season at Real Madrid will want to lead his country to victory at this year’s tournament. Colombia have a Copa America Index spread of 19-22 and a Group C Index spread of 13-14.5, and despite the fact they are sharing a group with Brazil, at 5/1 to win the whole thing.

Colombia’s opponents are Venezuela, who were part of that surprising 2011 Copa America, a tournament where they finished 4th. Despite failing to reach the 2014 World Cup, Venezuela only conceded 20 goals in 16 qualifiers, an impressive feat for a relatively small side. Yet Colombia and Brazil are the stars of this group, leaving Venezuela at a Copa America Index spread of 5-7 with a Group C Index spread of 3.75-4.75. And despite a plucky 2011 performance our Spreadex traders think the combined force of Rodriguez and Falcao will be too much, offering a Colombia/Venezuela Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 1.3-1.5 with a Total Goal spread of 2.6-2.8.