Can Messi make mincemeat of Brazil or will Neymar nip at Argentina’s heels when the two sides face-off in Thursday’s World Cup qualifier?

It’s probably not a surprise the CONMEBOL qualifying group looks so damn tight given the quality of football on the continent. What perhaps comes a surprise, however, is that at the moment Argentina are on the outside looking in. Stuck in 6th place (out of 10), Argentina are equal on 16 points with 5th place Chile, but behind on goals scored. That means, as things stand, Los Gauchos would miss out on a World Cup for the first time since 1970. Of course there is still a way to go yet before that threat becomes a reality; not so much time, however, that Argentina can really afford to lose at the Mineirao on Thursday.



Brazil, on the other hand, look set to cruise into the competition proper, therefore maintaining their position as the sole country to have appeared in every single World Cup. The Brazilians have lost just once so far in qualifying, their opening game against Chile, winning 6 and drawing 3. That leaves them top of the group with 21 points, one ahead of Uruguay and 3 ahead of 3rd place Ecuador.

It is tempting to boil the game down to a battle between Messi and Neymar, the Barcelona teammates heading into Thursday night at Super Mega PGM spreads of 24-29 and 32-38 respectively. The former was absent for Argentina’s October loss to Paraguay, and has only scored twice in qualifying so far; yet he has 16 goals in 14 games for his club, and will be sure to lift Argentine spirits when he returns for his country. Neymar, meanwhile, hasn’t been quite as prolific as his Barca buddy domestically, finding the back of the net a comparatively meagre 6 times, but may well nab his 50th goal for Brazil if all goes well on Thursday.

Of course both sides have more to them than that. Sergio Aguero will be seeking forgiveness after missing a penalty against Paraguay – spots kicks have haunted the Man City forward throughout this season – and heads to Brazil at a Super Mega PGM of 18-22, the same as Juventus’ Gonzalo Higuain. For the hosts, meanwhile, Palmeiras youngster Gabriel Jesus is at 23-28, with Liverpool’s in-form Roberto Firmino at 18-22.

Given that their first meeting in this qualification cycle ended in a 1-1 draw it is hard to call Thursday’s game; in the end the host’s form seems to have handed them the advantage, Spreadex offering a Brazil/Argentina Goal Supremacy spread of 0.2-0.4 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.35-2.55.