With the Battle of the Oppressive Regimes kicking the competition off on Thursday, it’s time to ask – who exactly will win the 2018 World Cup?

The countries clustered at the top of Spreadex’s Outright Index – where the winner gets 100 points, the runner-up 75, the losing semi-finalists 50, the losing quarter-finalists 25 and the unsuccessful last 16-ers 10 – come as no surprise.



Perennial favourites Brazil – 5-time winners, crushed semi-finalists in 2014 and far and away the best side during CONEMBOL qualification – sit atop the index with a spread of 42-46. They’re also at a binary Tournament Winner spread of 15.3-18.2, with an unbeaten fixed odds price of 9/2.

Interestingly, Neymar and co. don’t have it all their own way. Defending champs Germany actually lead in both Spreadex’s Four Pay Index – where the winners get 100 points and the losing finalists and semi-finalists get 20 points apiece – at 22.5-25.5 to Germany’s 22-25, and the To Make Final fixed odds, at 2/1 to 21/10.

Settling just behind the frontrunners are Spain and France, at Outright Index spreads of 38-41 and 37-40 respectively. And with a strike force including Antoine Griezmann, Olivier Giroud and Kylian Mbappe, the French are one of the more fancied sides going forwards, with a Goals Scored spread of 9.35-9.85, behind only Brazil at 10.3-10.8 and Germany at 10.1-10.6.

Argentina are then a bit lower than they would like, perhaps too reliant on Lionel Messi to nab a spread higher than 32.5-35.5. Belgium, meanwhile, will be looking to make the most out of their Premier League-stacked squad, and sit at an Outright Index spread of 32-35 with a fixed odds price of 11/1.

But enough of the big hitters – who are the dark horses looking to march on Moscow? Well, England are at an Outright Index spread of 25-28 and fixed odds of 20/1, capping their progress at the quarter-finals where they would in theory be on track for a meeting with Germany or Brazil. Inaugural winners Uruguay are at 22-25, while European champions Portugal have are haunted by the ‘one-man team’ accusations with a spread of 20-23.

And the no hopers? England’s Group G bedfellows Panama have a truly dismal Outright Index spread of 0-1.5, with Saudi Arabia at 0.25-1.75, Iran at 1.75-2.5 and Tunisia at 1.75-3.25.