Regardless of the end result, a forward can cement their place in history by winning the World Cup Golden Boot. So who’s exactly in the running in 2018?

Interestingly not since Ronaldo – the old one – scored 8 goals in 2002 has a player picked up both the Golden Boot and a World Cup winner’s medal. All-time top scorer Miroslav Klose and Thomas Muller both won it for bronze medallists Germany in 2006 and 2010 respectively, while Colombia’s James Rodriguez secured a move to Real Madrid following his success in 2014. In fact, only 4 times in 20 tournaments – 1962, 1978, 1982 and the aforementioned 2002 – has the Golden Boot winner played for the eventual world champions.



All this is to say that your chances of being top scorer aren't necessarily tied to the fate of your country. Not that you can completely discount that fact. The 3 favourite forwards going into Russia – Lionel Messi, Antoine Griezmann and Neymar – all come from well-fancied sides, and sit at fixed odds prices of 9/1. However, despite Argentina trailing France and Brazil on Spreadex’s Outright Index, Messi has the edge when it comes to the Tournament Goals spreads, at 3-3.3 against Neymar and Griezmann’s shared 2.7-3.

If anything captures the lack of connection between World Cup and Golden Boot winners, it’s the fact that England captain Harry Kane is next up at 11/1, ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo at 12/1 and Luis Suarez at 14/1. Yet the Tottenham star doesn’t have the same advantage in terms of Tournament Goals spreads, sitting narrowly behind his Portuguese and Uruguayan rivals at 2.45-2.7 to their 2.5-2.8.

Moving down the list and Romelu Lukaku, Gabriel Jesus and Timo Werner look like decent outside bets at 16/1, though Jesus does face the spotlight-stealing competition of Neymar. Youngster Kylian Mbappe faces the same problem as Jesus given the stacked nature of France’s frontline, and sits at 25/1, a does Robert Lewandowski.

After a blistering debut season at Liverpool, and with Egypt in an OK group, you’d have to think Mo Salah have a far better fixed odds price of 66/1 – a price he shares with former Golden Boot winners Muller and Rodriguez – if he didn’t have injury doubts looming over him.

Finally, if you’re looking for a real long shot, Iceland’s Gylfi Sigurdsson, Switzerland’s Xherdan Shaqiri and England’s Jesse Lingard are all at an eye-watering 400/1.