Sports Blog 12/05/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League Semi-Final 2nd Leg, Bayern Munich vs Barcelona, Tuesday 12th May 2015

Pep Guardiola’s return to the Nou Camp didn’t exactly go to plan last Wednesday; the Bayern Munich manager will be hoping to overturn the odds this evening when Barcelona visit the Allianz Arena at 7.45pm on ITV.

To put it simply, Barcelona were masterful at the Nou Camp last Wednesday, with their 3-0 victory leaving them with seemingly very little to do tonight in Munich. Unsurprisingly, Barca are sitting atop Spreadex’s Champions League Index by some way, with their spread of 88-91 easily the highest of the remaining sides.

What’s more, Barca have extended their lead at the top of La Liga to 4 points with their 2-0 win over Real Sociedad at the weekend. This means Barcelona have won 17 of their past 18 games, with only 1 goal conceded in their past 8 consecutive victories. Combine this with a team at full strength and Barca are looking invincible.



However, to Bayern’s credit, they have already managed to overturn a similar deficit in this season’s Champions League when they followed their 3-1 loss away at Porto with a 6-1 victory at home. Obviously there is a major difference this time, and it isn’t just the lack of away goal; Porto are no Barcelona, and the German side are left facing an unenviable task this evening.

Things are made worse by the fact that, if you include a penalty shootout defeat to Borussia Dortmund, and you would be remiss if you didn’t, Bayern have lost their last 4 games in a row. Not great form for the already anointed Bundesliga champions. Sprinkle on the continued, and damaging, absence of Ribery and Robben alongside fresher injuries for Alaba and Badstuber and Bayern are left at a Champions League Index spread of 50-53, safely the worst of the final four.

The difference last Wednesday, as it so often can be claimed this season, was Barcelona’s front three. Lionel Messi, whose brace last week pushed him to top scorer in the Champions League with 10 goals, is at a Super Mega Player Goal Minutes spread of 38-44 and fixed odds to score first of 4/1. The other members of Barcelona’s terrifying trio, Neymar and Suarez, are both at 13/2 to score first, with the former at a Super Mega PGM spread of 21-26 with the latter at 21-25. This is not to do a disservice to Bayern Munich’s star strikers; Robert Lewandowski is at a Super Mega PGM spread of 28-33 whilst Thomas Muller is at a spread of 25-30, with both at 11/2 to score first.

It would be unwise to completely count the German side out; Bayern are, after all, German champions despite their current run of bad form, and did set a fairly formidable precedent in their home leg against Porto. In light of this, Spreadex is offering a choice Bayern Munich/Barcelona Goal Supremacy sports spread betting quote of -0.1-0.1 with a Total Goals spread of 3.05-3.25. The question this evening may not be whether Bayern can win, but whether they can win by enough.