Sports Blog 12/11/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Euro 2016 Play-Offs 1st Leg, Thursday 12th to Saturday 14th November 2015

The long process of Euro 2016 qualification is about to come to an end, with a few old rivalries thrown into the mix for good measure.

First up on Thursday sees Norway take on Hungary at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 3. Thought they only missed out on 2nd place by a point to Croatia (who were, admittedly, deducted a point for racist behaviour), that stat arguably flatters Norway. They lost both of their matches against Italy and saw a heavy 5-1 defeat in their away tie in Zagreb; Norway also lacked any real bite up front, with their top scorer Norwich’s defensive midfielder Alexander Tettey on 3 goals.



Hungary, on the other hand, denied being ranked the top 3rd place team by a single point. And whilst Group F wasn’t necessarily one of the most difficult groups it was, for most of qualifying, one of the tightest. Hungary actually only lost twice (going unbeaten between their first and last games); however 4 low-scoring draws sapped some much-needed points from their campaign whilst also serving to highlight, like Norway, an absence of talent going forwards (only Daniel Bode and Krisztian Nemeth scored more than once in qualifying).

With both sides lacking inspiration in attack it is likely to be a close game; the fact that Norway got here from a tougher group counts in their favour, however, leading Spreadex to offer a Norway/Hungary Goal Supremacy of 0.55-0.75 alongside a (low) Total Goals spread of 2.05-2.25.

Things get even tighter as we head into Friday evening, when the Republic of Ireland visit Bosnia-Herzegovina at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1. Despite winning their final 3 qualifiers Bosnia ended up 4 points adrift of 2nd place Wales and 6 away from Group B toppers Belgium. They will be ruing their opening defeat to Cyprus as well as their 3-0 take-down by group dark-horses Israel; their 3-1 loss to Belgium was slightly less surprising, but still contributed to a spotty form sheet that leaves them still having to fight for a spot in France. At least Bosnia still have Edin Dzeko leading the front-line, his 7 goals in qualifying up there with the best.



Out of all the sides left in the play-offs Ireland came from almost objectively the toughest group in qualifying, and even then they came so close to securing an automatic spot. A 1-0 victory over Group D winners, and world champions, Germany in their penultimate game left Ireland achingly close to sealing 2nd place, before defeat to a Lewandowski-powered Poland in their final match left them in the play-offs. Unsurprisingly Robbie Keane, all-time goal-scorer in Euro qualifiers, led Ireland’s forwards with 5 goals, but he had vital support from (the frustratingly injured) Shane Long and Jonathan Walters, on 3 goals apiece.

It was a battle for Martin O’Neil’s men to get where they are now, and they will be desperate not to fall at the final hurdle. However, Bosnia have plenty of quality in their ranks, and our Spreadex traders fancy the home side at a tight Bosnia-Herzegovina/Ireland Goal Supremacy spread of 0.45-0.65 with a Total Goals spread of 2.1-2.3.

Saturday then sees a grudge match that goes all the way back to the Euro 2000 play-offs, as Ukraine host Slovenia at 5pm on Sky Sports 1. A somewhat inevitable double defeat against Spain means that Ukraine’s opening 1-0 loss to Slovakia was to be all that stood between the two sides at the end of qualifying. From that first game onwards both sides lost 2, drew 1 and won 6, meaning the Blue and Yellows lost out on 2nd place by a mere 3 points, the very 3 points they dropped in their defeat in Kiev.



Slovenia were slightly less close to automatic qualification than Ukraine; they ranked bottom out of the remaining 3rd place sides, finishing 5 points away from Switzerland in Group E. England’s unbeaten streak meant 1st place was never a possibility; however they did manage to beat the Swiss in their 3rd meeting, and only lost the return tie following 3 goals after having led 2-0 for the majority of the second half. Combine that with 2 1-0 defeats to Estonia and it was only the muddle form of those sides below them that allowed them to escape the group.

Given the respective forms of both sides a Euro 2000-style upset seems unlikely for the visiting side, with Spreadex offering a Ukraine/Slovenia Goal Supremacy spread of 0.8-1 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.1-2.3.

Finally it’s a Scandinavian stand off on Saturday evening, as Denmark visit Sweden at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1. On paper Group B looked like Sweden’s for the taking; however, a 1-0 loss against Russia, an embarrassing 4-1 defeat to Austria and a frustrating 1-1 draw against Montenegro were the 3 key moments where the Swedes sacrificed 2nd place to the 2018 World Cup host. Despite this fumble Zlatan Ibrahimovic still came out shining, ending qualification as Sweden’s (and the group’s joint) top scorer with 8 goals. Yet his countrymen’s overreliance on the imposing forward is at detriment to the side as a whole, something the Danes could exploit at the weekend.



Denmark found themselves in the on 5 team group, embarking on a frustrating campaign that saw them finish 2 points shy of Albania. They were perhaps unlucky to lose twice to Portugal, both games decided by a solitary goal; their games against Albania, on the other hand, will likely stick in Denmark’s craw a bit more, especially in light of how close the race of 2nd place ending up being. Those draws could have been avoided with a bit more savvy up front; it says a lot when Nicklas Bendtner, on a measly 2 goals, is your top scorer in qualifying.

Neither side was too impressive during the group stages, meaning it may fall to the giant form of Sweden’s main man Zlatan to separate them on Saturday. Our Spreadex traders think so, at least, offering a narrow Sweden/Denmark Goal Supremacy spread of 0.15-0.35 with a Total Goals spread of 2.05-2.25.