Will 2016’s Open Championship throw up a Masters-like surprise, or will one of the big boys take it a la US Open?

Kicking off in the early hours of Thursday morning at the Royal Troon Golf Club in Scotland, there are 2 clear favourites for the Open this year: Jason Day and Dustin Johnson. Both at 8/1 fixed odds prices to win the tournament, the pair are only separated by their respective Leaderboard Index spreads (where the winner gets 80 points, 2nd place 40, 3rd 30, 4th 25, 5th 20, 6th 15, 7th 10 and 8th 5).

Aussie Day is at 14-17 to Johnson’s 13-16, the former edging ahead largely thanks to fact he is currently the top-ranked player on the PGA Tour. Yet while Day has won 3 tour events in 2016 (the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the WGC-Dell Match Play and the Players Championship), he has so far failed to win a major, tying for 10th and 8th at the Masters and US Open respectively.



Dustin Johnson, on the other, has momentum on his side. Less than a month ago the American won the US Open, his first major title, following up that victory by taking the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at the start of July. The trouble for Johnson is that the Open Championship has tended to be his weakest major in the last few years; while his star has been on the rise in the Masters, US Open and PGA Championship at the UK tournament he has struggled, tying for 32nd, 12th and 49th in the last 3 years.

Rory McIlroy, who heads to Scotland with a Leaderboard Index spread of 12-15 alongside 9/1 fixed odds, missed last year’s Open Championship through injury having won it in 2014. Since then he hasn’t really re-found his form, limping his way through the 2016 tour. Tied for 10th at the Masters the Irishman then missed the cut at the US Open; his sole victory of the year so far has come on home turf, winning the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open by 3 strokes.

2016 has been similarly, if not quite as, uninspiring for Jordan Spieth, who has a Leaderboard Index spread of 10-13 with fixed odds of 11/1. After an incredible 2015, which saw the American win the Masters and US Open before finishing 4th at the Open Championship and 2nd at the PGA Championship, Spieth had a lot to live up to this year. Initially he seemed like he was going to maintain his formidable form, finishing as joint runner-up at the Masters; yet he slumped to 37th place finish at the US Open, and is in danger of completely losing the swagger he gained last year.

Beyond the frontrunners there are more than a few familiar faces lurking on the peripheries. Just outside the top 4 is Adam Scott, who has a Leaderboard Index spread of 7.5-9.5 alongside a fixed odds price of 20/1. Last year’s winner Zach Johnson is at 40/1 to repeat his 2015 achievement, while Danny Willett, shock champion as this year’s Masters, is at 50/1.

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