After a fairly muted start to Euro 2016 will things pick up as the competition’s Group (E) of Death gets underway this Monday afternoon?

First up are the group’s ostensibly weaker sides, with the Republic of Ireland kicking off their competition against Sweden at 5pm on BBC One. After enduring such a difficult qualifying campaign Ireland will perhaps feel aggrieved that they have been drawn with three heavy hitters in the form of Belgium, Italy and Sweden. Yet the increased size of the competition, and the subsequent role of the 4 best 3rd place sides, gives the Irish a slender hope of reaching the knockouts, with the team sitting at Group E index spread of 4-5.5 to Sweden’s 6.5-8.5 (where 1st place gets 25, 2nd place 10 and 3rd place 5).



While Ireland wait and see whether the likes of Robbie Keane and Jonathan Walters are fit enough to start, there is no question who will be leading the charge for Sweden. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has no rival in this Sweden squad, with the success of the country’s appearance at the Euros falling almost squarely on his shoulders. Luckily for Sweden Zlatan found the back of the net 11 times for them in their relatively disappointing qualification campaign, a tally only beaten by Robert Lewandowski, including 3 of the side’s 4 goals in their play-off against Denmark. He certainly should have some role to play against Ireland, heading into the Group E opener at a Super Mega PGM spread of 36-42.

Monday’s match provides both sides with their best chance of picking up some points before they face their superior Group E rivals later in the competition. It could be one of the slower games (Sweden and Ireland had the 2nd and 3rd oldest squads in qualifying respectively), meaning the presence of Zlatan may give his country the edge, with Spreadex offering a Sweden/Ireland Goal Supremacy spread of 0.2-0.4 alongside a Total Goals spread of 1.95-2.15.

In what is arguably the pick of Week 1 the competition’s most sumptuous attack takes on one of its stingiest defences when Belgium face Italy at 8pm on BBC One. Labelled dark horses at the 2014 World Cup, 2 years later there is nothing underdog-ish about this Belgium side. At an Outright Index spread of 29-32 (leaving them at least eyeing the quarter-finals), Marc Wilmots has a wealth of talent to pick from up front. From the Premier League alone there is Romelu Lukaku, Divock Origi (both at Super Mega PGMs of 17-21), Eden Hazard, Christian Benteke (both at 16-20) and Kevin De Bruyne (at 11-15), making Belgium’s front line easily one of the most imposing in the entire competition. Yet there are worries at the back, with Nicolas Lombaerts, Bjorn Engels, Dedryck Boyata and, most damningly, Vincent Kompany are all missing from the squad through injury.



Interestingly Italy almost have exactly the opposite issue. Defensively the side are stereotypically strong, bolstered by Juventus-led backline of Leonardo Bonucci, Andrea Barzagli and Girogio Chiellini in front of, as ever, Gianluigi Buffon. However, they are one of the lower-scoring sides in the competition, their most prolific scorer during qualification being Southampton’s Graziano Pelle (who heads into Monday evening at a Super Mega PGM of 17-21) with a meagre 3 goals.

Given the counter-strengths and weaknesses of these 2 sides it is sure to be an incredibly close game. Our Spreadex traders certainly think so, offering a slight Belgium/Italy Goal Supremacy spread of 0.05-0.25 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.05-2.25.

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