Sports Blog 14/05/2015: Match Preview –Championship Play-Offs Semi-Finals 2nd Leg, Friday 15th & Saturday 16th May 2015

With the League One play-off finalists confirmed, it’s the turn of the Championship this weekend, as fans find out the final 2 contenders for a place in the Premier League.

Last Sunday saw Preston cement their place in the League One play-off final, breezing through both legs of their tie against Chesterfield with a 1-0 away win complimented by a confident 3-0 victory at Deepdale. Things weren’t so simple in the other League One play-off semi-final. A last minute winner from Nathan Byrne in the first leg gave Swindon a narrow 2-1 win over Sheffield United going into the 2nd leg. Monday is when things went crazy. 2-0 up within 10 minutes, Swindon looked set for an easy ride to the play-off final; however, Sheffield fought back and the first half ended 3-2 to the Robins. Nets continued to bulge in the 2nd half, but heartbreakingly for Sheffield a 90th minute equaliser from Che Adams, taking things to a staggering 5-5 and a huge 475 Total Goal Minute make-up, wasn’t enough to take them to Wembley.

Neutrals will be delighted if the Championship play-off semi-final 2nd legs can match the pulse-racing scenes at the Country Ground; Friday sees a trailing Brentford visit Middlesbrough at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1. Like in the first leg of Sheffield/Swindon, Middlesbrough nabbed an injury time winner to take the lead heading into the return fixture at Riverside. Given that Boro were the best performing home team in the Championship last season, only losing 3 times across 2014/15, it is perhaps unsurprising that they have the best Championship Play-Off Index spread of the remaining sides, at 13.5-15.



This has left Brentford with a limp Championship Play-Off Index spread of 2.5-3.5, and looking at their form it is not hard to see why. Brentford failed to win 12 of their 23 away games in the Championship last season, and were hit for 4 with no reply last time they ventured into Middlesbrough. However, Brentford were unlucky to lose the first leg after being the stronger side in the second half, only to be undone by Fernando Amorebieta’s well-taken strike.

Patrick Bamford, Middlesbrough’s top scorer this season with 19 goals so far, is favourite to score first at 17/4, and has a Super Mega Player Goal Minutes spread of 35-41, whilst Jelle Vossen, whose goal put Boro in the lead last week, is at 6/1 with a Super Mega PGM spread of 18-22. Andre Gray, Brentford’s lone goal-scorer last week and leading goal-scorer all season, is at fixed odds of 7/1 to score first with a Super Mega PGM spread of 18-22.

Amorebieta’s late in the game goal may have been the death knell for Brentford, whose weak form on the road could be their undoing when they travel up north on Friday. This has led our Spreadex traders to favour the Teeside team, at a Middlesbrough/Brentford Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.5-0.7 with a Total Goals spread of 2.6-2.8.

The other Championship play-off semi-final looks set to be even tighter, with Ipswich visiting Norwich for the 99th Old Farm derby on Saturday at 12.15pm on Sky Sports 1. A 1-1 draw at Portman Road probably leaves Ipswich at a slight disadvantage given the fact that Norwich were the top scoring home side in the Championship last season, averaging just over 2 goals a game after grabbing 50 in 23 matches. Norwich also have the added bonus of already seeing off the Tractor Boys this season, winning 2-0 in their first tie at Carrow Road at the start of March.



This has left Norwich with a strong Championship Play-Off Index spread of 12-13.5, a spread that is much higher than Ipswich’s 4.25-5.25. Like Brentford, Ipswich’s form on the road may prove to be their weakness, as the Tractor Boys failed to win their final 3 away games as the season came to a close. Combine that with the fact that Ipswich have conceded more than they have scored away from home, and their failure to grab a win at Portman Road may come back to haunt them.

With 19 goals for Norwich this season, Cameron Jerome is favourite to score first at fixed odds of 4/1, with a Super Mega PGM spread of 31-37. Just behind Jerome is Bradley Johnson on 15 goals this season, at 7/1 to score first and a Super Mega PGM spread of 17-21. Ipswich’s goal-scoring has been much more narrowly focused this season, with Daryl Murphy leading on 27 goals with Freddie Sears far behind on 9. This has left the former at 6/2 with a Super Mega PGM of 21-25, whilst the latter is at 9/1 with a Super Mega PGM of 13-17.

Norwich have looked comfortable at home all season, and despite the higher stakes on Saturday will go into the game knowing that they have beaten Ipswich at Carrow Road before, and can do it again. Our traders therefore fancy the Canaries at a Norwich/Ipswich Goal Supremacy sports spread betting quote of 0.7-0.9 with a Total Goals spread of 2.5-2.7.