Sports Blog 14/10/2015: Match Preview – Rugby World Cup Quarter Finals, Saturday 17th to Sunday 18th October 2015

The England-free Rugby World Cup quarter finals are this weekend, with some delectable (if predictable) ties promising fireworks.

First up on Saturday is what will arguably be the closest game of the weekend, as South Africa take on Wales at 4pm. The Springboks, with an Outright Index spread of 56-59 and at 5/1 to win the tournament, might have shockingly lost their opening game to fan favourites Japan, but that defeat only served to spur on Heyneke Meyer’s side to a 46-6 victory over Samoa, a 34-16 win over Scotland and an easy 64-0 trouncing of the US (the only game of the Pool stages, incidentally, to see a team fail to get on the scoreboard). In the process Bryan Habana added to his all-time Springbok record tryscorer tally with a tournament tying 5, whilst JP Pietersen nabbed 4 (3 coming against Samoa).



If South Africa nearly made a meal out of topping a group that should have always been theirs, then Wales, at 33/1 to win the tournament alongside an Outright Index of 34-36, managed to escape a Pool that many thought they couldn’t. An opening victory against Uruguay was par for the course; a 28-25 win over England at Twickenham wasn’t, with a phenomenal performance from Dan Biggar spoiling the host’s party. Yet nothing has been easy for the Welsh this tournament; their game against Fiji was likely tighter than Warren Gatland would have liked, and their loss against Australia was a game that Wales really could have (should have?) won. Most damningly, their progress has seen players dropping like flies, the most recent injury to Liam Williams seeing him join long line absentees.

A full strength Wales could give the Springboks a run for their money; and, indeed, the Welsh have got to this point without a complete roster. Yet South Africa are in ascendance, and our Spreadex traders can’t see beyond Habana and go, offering a South Africa/Wales Points Supremacy spread of 7-10.

Saturday evening then sees an almost as tasty match-up, as New Zealand face France at 8pm. This weekend will likely be the first real test the All Blacks have faced since their opening game against Argentina, with Steve Hansen’s side breezing past Namibia, Georgia and Tonga on their way to topping Pool C. Julian Savea has matched Bryan Habana’s 5 tries, whilst Nehe Milner-Skudder, with 4 tries and the only player left in the tournament with 2 Man of the Match awards, has arguably been New Zealand’s standout. New Zealand might not have been as unstoppable as people feared before the competition began, but with 5/4 fixed odds and an Outright Index of 74-77, they still remain firm favourites to lift the Webb Ellis Cup.

Whilst most of the Group of Death discussions focused, understandably, on Pool A, with half of the Six Nations in attendance Pool D was no mean feat either. And though losing their final group game to Ireland may have left France with a nightmare quarter-final draw against New Zealand, something that has dragged their Outright Index down to 31-33, there has still been plenty to recommend about Les Bleus, at least before last weekend. The French will also take reassurance from the fact that some of their most memorable World Cup moments, namely in 2007, have been victories over the All Blacks.

A French lack of creativity last Sunday, and the general imposing aura (warranted or not) around New Zealand gives the latter the edge, with Spreadex offering a New Zealand/France Points Supremacy spread of 12-15.



Sunday’s first game then sees Ireland take on a tenacious Argentina at 1pm. At a respectable Outright Index spread of 50-53, alongside fixed odds of 10/1, Ireland looked solid, if not necessarily spectacular, as they progressed through Pool D, their victory over France the high point. However, with captain Paul O’Connell missing the rest of the tournament (and ending his international career) with a hamstring injury, alongside the previously-ruled out Peter O’Mahony and, potentially, Johnny Sexton, AND a suspension for Sean O’Brien Ireland might end up with the same problem as Wales; plenty of talent, just not enough available on game-day.

It doesn’t help that Argentina, with an Outright Index spread of 37-39, have looked fantastic this tournament; in fact the Pumas scored the most points in the Pool stages, their 179 beating out South Africa’s 176 and New Zealand’s 174. In Nicholas Sanchez they have the 4th best pointscorer of the competition, whilst Santiago Cordero and Juan Imoff have looked impressive going forwards with 3 tries apiece. They even ran New Zealand close in their opening game, leading for much of the match before late(ish) tries from Aaron Smith and Sam Cane gave the All Blacks the win.

Whilst experience and momentum goes in Ireland’s favour, their injury (and suspension) woes its likely to make Sunday a bit more uncomfortable for Joe Schmidt’s side then they would like, with Spreadex offering an Ireland/Argentina Points Supremacy spread of 3-6.

Finally sees arguably the easiest to call game of the quarters, as Australia face Scotland at 4pm. Given where they were a year ago, for Michael Cheika to get the Wallabies out of Pool A is an achievement in and of itself; to do it unbeaten shows their place as real contenders for the title. Their victory over England was an understandable high point, but it was their hard-earned win over Wales that really showed the Wallabies’ mettle. It means that the Aussies go into the weekend only behind New Zealand in both their Outright Index spread, at 71-74, and their fixed odds to lift the Cup, at 9/4.

Scotland, on the other hand, were almost out of the World Cup last Saturday, leaving it until the final 7 minutes to secure both a hard-fought victory over Samoa, and a place in the quarter finals. Captain Greig Laidlaw has been the Scottish star, not only scoring the winning try in Wembley at the weekend but, with 60 points, coming out of the Pool stages at the top scorer in the tournament so far. Yet, given they were comprehensively beaten by South Africa a couple of weeks ago, it might be a bit much to ask for a victory on Sunday, leaving Scotland with the worst Outright Index spread of 29-31.

Whilst the over 3 quarter-finals could have surprises in store, it is hard to see anything but an Aussie win come Sunday evening, with Spreadex offering an Australia/Scotland Supremacy spread of 16-19.