Sports Blog 15/12/2015: Post-Draw Preview – UEFA Champions League Last 16, February to March 2016

With a touch and go group stage done and dusted the remaining English sides in the Champions League have been dealt a sliding scale of difficult match-ups for the round of 16, the rest of the draw throwing up a few juicy fixtures as well.

Spreadex have a smorgasbord of prices for Europe’s premier club competition, including the Champions League Index, where the winner receives 100 points, the runner-up 75, the losing semi-finalists 50 each, losing quarter-finalists 25 apiece and the losing last 16-ers a mere 10 points per team.

Undoubtedly the toughest and tastiest tie sees Arsenal take on defending European champions Barcelona. After barely scraping through a group stage that, Bayern Munich aside, should have been a relative breeze, the Gunners’ nightmare draw came true on Monday; in fact, dropping into the Europa League probably looks a lot less awful now that a last-16 exit is on the cards. That might be slightly unfair; after all, Arsenal are 2nd in the Premier League and, injuries withstanding, have a genuine shot at the title this season.

It is just that Barcelona, despite a couple of recent draws leaving them joint top of La Liga with Atletico Madrid, are, well, Barcelona. With Messi back from injury, and Neymar in Ballon d’Or troubling form, not to mention the bitey member of that terrifying triumvirate (the trio having 46 goals between them) the Catalan giants are favourites to defend their title at a Champions League Index spread of 55-59 (and fixed odds of 9/4) compared to Arsenal’s significantly reduced spread of 15-18.



Following that match in the toughness stakes is another meeting between Chelsea and PSG. For two seasons in a row the sides have met in the knockouts (quarter finals and last 16 respectively), with the Blues winning in 2013/14 and French champions memorably victorious last year. Given the current his side’s current state Jose Mourinho would have likely wanted to face a much easier side than PSG, who are currently running away with Ligue 1 by an astonishing 17 points after 18 games whilst Chelsea languish in 16th after losing to Leicester on Monday. Understandably, then, PSG are at a Champions League Index of 34-37 to Chelsea’s 20-23.

After failing to make it past the last 16 time and again Manchester City have been gifted a tie that is arguably theirs to lose, drawing Group G runners-up Dynamo Kiev in the easiest fixture of the competitions’ English clubs. City have veered between majestic and muddled so far this season, with heavy losses to Tottenham and Liverpool alongside a double defeat to Juventus in Europe. Yet they still managed to top Group D, are in the running for the title AND are in the League Cup semi-finals. Dynamo Kiev admittedly managed to escape from the same group as Chelsea, knocking Porto out in the process; yet it seems like its City’s year to finally go beyond the last 16, the English side sitting at a 11/1 to lift the cup, alongside an Index spread of36-39, compared to Kiev’s rather limp spread of 13-16.

Beyond the English sides the biggest match of the draw is clearly the battle between the Italian and German champions, as Juventus takes on Bayern Munich. A loss against Sevilla prevented Juve from taking the Group D top spot, and they have been punished for it in the last 16. Domestically the Italian giants have only recently begun to rebound form their dismal start to the season, winning their last 6 Serie A games to leave them in 4th.

Bayern Munich, on the other hand, lead the Bundesliga by 5 points, recently suffering their first domestic loss of the season against Borussia Monchengladbach. In Europe Bayern dominated Group F, their loss against Arsenal (who they smashed 5-1 in the return tie) the only blight on an otherwise perfect record. If they hadn’t been drawn together both sides would have expected to go far in this season’s Champions League; as it is, however, Bayern come out on top at a Champions League Index spread of 54-58 (just a smidge below behind Barca) to Juventus’ 15-18.



Alongside their league rivals Barcelona Real Madrid were the only unbeaten side in the group stages; they take on a Roma when the competition resumes in February. Whilst untouchable in Europe Madrid have been fallible at times domestically, their most egregious defeat an embarrassing 4-0 loss in the first El Clasico of the season. And though Cristiano Ronaldo may have an absurd 11 goals in the group stages, domestically he failed to score in his 9th La Liga game of the season last weekend.

Yet they still look better than Roma who, at 5th in Serie A, barely scarped through to the knockouts with a mere 6 points, the nadir being a 6-1 away defeat at the hands of a rampant Barcelona. It looks like the Italian side may be on the end of another Spanish thrashing, with Madrid at a the third best Champions League Index spread, of 47-51, compared to Roma’s relatively rubbish 13-16 (alongside 5/1 and 150/1 fixed odds respectively).

Not to do the teams involved a disservice, but the final 3 games of the draw contain a few sides that would have been a prime pick for any of the English clubs involved. Finishing ahead of Manchester United, PSV Eindhoven put in a few solid performances in the group stages, namely home wins over United, Wolfsburg and CSKA Moscow. Yet, at the worst Champions League Index spread of 12-15 may struggle against the Group C topping Atletico Madrid who, at an Index spread of 37-40, are currently sitting on the same 35 points as La Liga leaders Barcelona.

Though arguably two of the last 16’s second tier sides, it is fairly hard to separate Benfica and Zenit St Petersburg, sitting at Champions League Index spreads of 20-23 and 21-24 respectively. The Portuguese champions qualified from one of the easiest groups, coming 2nd to Atletico Madrid ahead of Galatasaray and Astana; domestically, however, they are in 3rd behind the unbeaten Sporting CP and Porto. Their Russian opponents dominated Group H, losing only once to secure 1st place over Gent, Valencia and Lyon; yet things are far from rosy in the Russian Premier League, Zenit in 6th after drawing a third of their game so far this season.

Finally we come to perhaps the most surprising team in the last 16, Belgian champions Gent, against the side that sent Manchester United packing, Wolfsburg. Knocking out Valencia and Lyon, and beating Zenit in the process, Gent were the side Arsenal and[ Chelsea would have hoped for; though that might be a tad harsh, the side top of the Belgian Pro League and more than holding their own in a tricky group. Wolfsburg were less of a surprise, despite erratic Bundesliga form that leaves them, in 4th, 12 points away from Borussia Dortmund and 17 away from Bayern Munich. The German club have definitely benefited from the draw sitting at a Champions League Index spread of 28-31 (above the likes of Chelsea, Juventus and Arsenal) compared to Gent’s 13-16.

Check back at Spreadex for all the latest Champions League fixed odds and spread betting opportunities as the competition continues!