Can Arsenal cement their mid-March recovery with a Europa League win over AC Milan, at 8.05pm on BT Sport 2?

Given just how woeful they’d been 2018, there were some real big concerns heading into the Gunners’ trip to the San Siro to face an AC Milan side that hadn’t lost a game in 13 fixtures. Yet, even without their choice forwards – Alexandre Lacazette is still injured, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang cup-tied – Arsenal managed to exit Italy with a confident 2-0 win.



Not only do those 2 away goals put Arsenal in the driving seat for the last 16 tie, it makes them one of the favourites to win the Europa League full stop. The Gunners now sit at an Outright Index spread of 50-53 – where the champions are awarded 100 points, the runners-up 75, the losing semi-finalists 50, etc. – trailing only Atletico Madrid at 57-60, and ahead of both Lyon and Marseille at 36-39 apiece.

Triumph in the Europa League is pretty crucial for Arsenal. Even with their 3-0 win at Watford over the weekend they are 12 points adrift of Liverpool in 4th, and 8 behind Chelsea in 5th, meaning victory in the continent’s second most prestigious club competition is effectively their only chance of reaching next season’s Champions League.

Interesting AC Milan are in a very similar situation to their Thursday hosts. While in a better position than Arsenal points-wise, the club are nevertheless lurking outside Serie A’s top 4, and could do with a keeping an extra route open to the European top flight. (They have got a Coppa Italia final scheduled for May, but a win there would only give them a spot in the Europa League).

In terms of Thursday’s game, surprise England call-up Danny Welbeck will be given yet another chance to get on the scoresheet, and sits at a Super Mega PGM of 28-34, while the in-form Henrikh Mkhitaryan is at 24-29. As for Milan, Patrick Cutrone is their best bet, with 14 goals in all competitions and a Super Mega PGM of 25-30.

Though they are in control, the Gunners could do with putting the fixture out of sight. Spreadex are offering an Arsenal/AC Milan Goal Supremacy of 0.5-0.7 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.8-3.