Sports Blog 17/03/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League Last-16 2nd Leg, Tuesday 17th March 2015

As the Champions League Last 16 starts to wrap up, Arsenal travel to France to try and overcome some seemingly insurmountable odds, whilst Atletico Madrid attempt to remove their deficit against Bayer Leverkusen.

Come kick-off at 7.45pm on ITV, Arsenal will have to do what no team has managed in Europe’s premier club competition since 1969: qualify for a knockout round by scoring three goals after losing the first home leg by more than a goal. A woeful performance at the Emirates has left the Gunners with a mountain of a task, made all the worse by Monaco’s current form. The French side have only conceded 2 goals in their entire Champions League run this season, are currently unbeaten in 16 games at home and have the best defensive record in Ligue 1. On top of this they have an in form Dimitar Berbatov, at 9/2 to score first, alongside Lacina Traore and Anthony Martial, both at 15/2. To beat them will be difficult; to score 3 goals may be too much to ask.



However, and it’s a pretty significant however, Arsenal are entering the match tonight in one of their best periods of form all season. The Gunners’ loss against Monaco is their one non-win in the past 8 games. In fact, in their 15 games in all competitions since the New Year, Arsenal have won 12 and lost 3, including wins in Manchester against both City and United. They are fresh off not only beating the latter to send them through to an FA Cup semi-final against Reading, but an emphatic win against West Ham at the weekend that leaves them in 3rd in the Premier League, only 1 point behind Manchester City in second place.



Arsenal’s success tonight could hinge on how well Olivier Giroud (11/2 to score first) can put his first leg demons to bed; despite his shocking performance in that game, the Frenchman has scored 6 in 6 and will be desperate to right the wrongs of the first tie in this fixture. Oxlade-Chamberlain, the man whose last minute goal leaves Arsenal with a chance of qualifying, is out through injury, as is Jack Wilshere; however, Mikel Arteta and Gabriel Paulista return, as does Aaron Ramsey (11/1 to score first), a noticeable absence from the first leg. Our traders and clients alike fancy the Gunners to get a narrow win, even if they don’t qualify, at an Arsenal/Monaco (h) Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.15-0.35 and a Total Goals spread of 2.7-2.9.

Atletico Madrid are facing a slightly easier task than the North London side, as they aim to negate Bayer Leverkusen’s 1-0 first leg victory at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1. Yet there are signs that the Spanish team may make things hard for themselves. After drawing their last 3 games in a row, and only managing one win in their last 6, Atletico are now sitting 4th in La Liga and 9 points off of league leaders Barcelona, leaving them with next to no chance of repeating last year’s success. They also haven’t scored in 205 minutes in the Champions League, the worst performance of the final 16 sides. Yet, at the same time, Atletico have won 20 of their past 22 home games in Europe, leaving them in a good position to overcome Leverkusen’s narrow lead.



For their part, Bayer Leverkusen are coming into the game with a decent run of form behind them. Since winning the first leg the German side have won all four of their subsequent games, the most recent being a 4-0 victory over the Bundesliga’s current whipping boys Stuttgart. And with Lars Bender returning, Leverkusen will be able to field a near-full strength side when they visit Madrid. Whilst they may be 4th in the Bundesliga, the same as Atletico, what this means for each club is very different, and Leverkusen will be buoyed by their recent run.



They will be looking to the first leg’s lone goal scorer Hakan Calhanoglu to repeat his feat, at 12/1 to score first, alongside Stephen Kiessling at 6/1 and Josip Drmic at 9/1. Atletico, who haven’t scored in 5 of their past 6 games, will desperately need to Antoine Griezmann (9/2 to score first), Raul Garcia (11/2) and Fernando Torres (5/1) to find the form that has been so noticeable absent in the past month. Yet our Spreadex traders still expect the Madrid side to kick into gear tonight, at an Atletico Madrid/Bayer Leverkusen Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.6-0.8 with a Total Goals quote of 2.3-2.5.