Sports Blog 17/09/2015: Tournament Preview – Rugby World Cup 2015, Friday 18th September to Saturday 31st October 2015

Hosted solely by England for the first time in the tournament’s history, the Rugby World Cup 2015 gets underway on Friday, and Spreadex has a staggering breath of fixed odds and spread betting opportunities for your pleasure.

Chief among them is the Outright Index, where the winner receives 100 points, the runner-up 80, 3rd place 60 and 4th place 50. The losing quarter-finalists then get 25 points, whilst the third place side in a Pool gets 10 and fourth in the Pool gets 5.



First up is Pool A, easily the toughest group of competition (calm down Pool D) and one that contains 3 of the world’s top 5 sides. After losing out on the Six Nations on number of points scored for the second year in a row, England will be desperate to reach the final (at the very least) in front of a home crowd. The only European side to have won the tournament, England go into Friday’s opening game at an Outright Index spread of 52-55, the second best out of the 20 sides participating, alongside 9/2 fixed odds. Focus will likely be on Jonny May, in fine form and the key man in England’s warm-up win over France, and Jonathan Joseph, top tryscorer at this year’s Six Nations and at 4.5-7 spread to match that feat at the World Cup.

England’s opponents are Fiji, at a meagre Outright Index spread of 5.5-7 despite winning the Pacific Nations Cup for the last 3 years in a row. Stuart Lancaster’s men are expected to dominate on Friday, with Spreadex offering an England/Fiji Supremacy spread of 23-26 alongside a Total Points spread of 53-56.

Like England, Wales will have been bitterly disappointing with this year’s Six Nations, coming in 3rd due to difference in points scored. Yet Wales have won the Six Nations twice since the World Cup in 2011 (where they came in 4th after losing to Australia in the 3rd place play-off), and go into the tournament ranked 5th in the world. Alex Cuthbert and George North are the ones to watch for Wales, at 25/1 and 45/1 to be top tryscorers respectively, with the side at an Outright Index spread of 22-25 to win the whole thing.

They will also have the benefit of a roaring Cardiff when they face Uruguay (the only team not at the 2011 tournament, and at a dismal Outright Index spread of 0-0.5) on Sunday, a game that the Welsh are an astonishing 1/1000 odds on favourite to win, alongside an embarrassingly high Wales/Uruguay Supremacy spread of 67-71.

The final team in Pool A will have to wait until next Wednesday to get their tournament underway, when Australia take on Fiji in Cardiff. Currently ranked 2nd in the world, Australia haven’t won the World Cup since 1999, memorably losing the Final to England in 2003 and coming 3rd in 2011. Yet they are in the midst of a revival, winning The Rugby World Championship this year for the first time since 2011, complete with a first win over bitter rivals New Zealand in 4 years. This means the Wallabies, alongside England, are favourites to escape the Group of Death, and sit at an Outright Index spread of 43-46 alongside 7/1 fixed odds.

Moving onto Pool B and the picture looks a bit clearer. At an Outright Index spread of 49-52 and with 6/1 fixed odds to lift the William Webb Ellis Cup are South Africa. Winners of the historic 1995 World Cup and victorious over England in 2007, the Springboks shouldn’t have too much difficulty in their group, especially with Morne Steyn (top scorer at the 2011 tournament) and Bryan Habana (South Africa’s all-time top tryscorer and with the best non-New Zealand Tryscorer Index spread of 8-11) leading the charge. The Springboks first game is in Brighton on Saturday against Japan. The Brave Blossoms (not one of the best international nicknames) easily won the first ever Asian Rugby Championship this year, but sit at a lowly Outright Index spread of 2.5-4, with the chance of humiliation at the weekend with Spreadex offering a South Africa/Japan Supremacy spread of 45-49.

Beyond South Africa the fight what is likely to be 2nd place in Pool B is a bit tighter. Samoa, runners-up at this year’s Pacific Nations Cup, haven’t been past the group stages for the past 3 tournaments, but stand a slim chance of doing so this year, at a respectable Outright Index spread of 15-18. They take on the United States in their first game, the side most likely to be Pool B’s whipping boy and holders of the 4th worst Outright Index spread at 1.75-3.25. The USA’s best finish in a World Cup was coming 3rd in their Pool in the inaugural tournament in 1987; in other words, at a Supremacy spread of 17-20, Samoa are looking at a comfortable win.

The final side in Pool B perhaps stands the best chance of reaching the quarter-finals; though, if Scotland perform as they did in the Six Nations, perhaps not. The Scots lost every game in this year’s premier European competition, including a colossal 40-10 defeat to Ireland. Yet they could be able to edge out Samoa, and sit at an Outright Index spread of 21-24 and at 15/2 to win the group.

We then come to the easiest group, with Pool C effectively a one horse race. At far and away the best Outright Index spread of 73-76, and 5/4 favourites to win the tournament for the third time, are New Zealand. They are the current champions, winning at home in 2011, winner of 3 of the last 4 Rugby Championships AND are ranked no. 1 in the world. Not only this, but the top 4 players on Spreadex’s Tryscorer Index are All Blacks; Julian Savea (at 28-31), Nehe Milner-Skudder and Waisake Naholo (both at 16-19) and Ben Smith (at 14-17) are set to duke it out for top honours, and mean New Zealand look terrifyingly strong going into the competition.

Their first opponents on Sunday are Argentina, the team most likely to join the All Blacks out of the group with an Outright Index spread of 31-34. The Pumas don’t have too bad a record at a tournament normally dominated by a handful of teams, finishing 3rd in 2007 and reaching the quarter-finals in 2011. However, they won’t have it easily in their opening match and will probably have to look for points elsewhere, with Spreadex offering a New Zealand/Argentina Supremacy spread of 21-24.

It will be somewhat of a surprise if one of Pool C’s remaining teams can manage to escape the group. Tonga stand the best chance, at an Outright Index spread of 9-11, though they have never managed to get to the quarter-finals despite appearing at 6 of the previous 7 tournaments. They take on Georgia in their first game, arguably the best European team outside of the Six Nations sides; yet despite the fact that Lelos have won the European Nations Cup (reserved for those excluded from the Six Nations) for the past 5 years in a row, they still have a meagre Outright Index spread of 9-11. The Ikale Tahi are expected to win the first game, just, at a Tonga/Georgia Supremacy spread of 9-12.

And what of Namibia? Well, at a joint worst Outright Index spread of 0-0.5 the Welwitschias will just be operating on a damage-limitation basis, conceding 186 in 1999, 310(!!!) in 2003, 212 in 2007 and 266 in 2011.

Finally we come to Pool D, the only group to rival Pool A in the toughness stakes. Containing half of the Six Nations, it will be a battle between Ireland and France (and maybe Italy) to finish first and avoid a quarter-final encounter with (assumedly) New Zealand. First up is the Irish, winners of the Six Nations for 2 years in a row and one of the favourites for the tournament as a whole at an Outright Index spread of 47-50. Ireland have never been at their best at the World Cup, never managing to get past the quarter-final stage. If Joe Schmidt’s side is finally to capitalise on their recent success then players like Tommy Bowe (at a Tryscorer Index spread of 3-5), Paul O’Connell (Player of the Tournament at this year’s Six Nations) and Jonathan Sexton need to be at their best.

Ireland shouldn’t be too troubled in their first game; Canada have an Outright Index spread of 2.5-4, haven’t gotten to the quarter-finals in 5 World Cups, and are on the wrong side of a Supremacy spread of 42-45.

The French will be hoping 2015 can be their year after 3 silver medals, 1 bronze medal and 2 4th place finishes has left Les Bleus always the bridesmaid(ish) and never the bride. At an Outright Index spread of 40-43 and 12/1 to win the competition France are, on paper, all set to escape their group with relative ease, boosted by the form of Gael Fickou and Yoann Huget (the latter at a 5.5-8.5 Tryscorer Index spread).

They take on Italy who, despite being one of Europe’s elite, have never been beyond the Pool stage in all 7 previous World Cups. Sadly for the Italians, and the majestic Sergio Parisse especially, it is unlikely they will do so this year, at an Outright Index spread of 9-11 and facing an unenviable France/Italy Supremacy spread ahead of Saturday’s match.

The group is rounded out by Romania, runner-up in 4 of the last 5 European Nations Cups, at an Outright Index spread of 1.5-2.5 and, to be frank, unlikely to ruffle the feathers of the Pool’s bigger boys.

Make sure to check Spreadex throughout the competition for all the latest fixed odds and spreads, and take a gander at our handy fixtures guide to make sure you know when you need to be in the pub!