Sports Blog 18/12/2015: Match Preview – Premier League, Saturday 19th to Sunday 20th December 2015

With the dismissal of the (no longer) ‘Special One’ dominating headlines you’d be forgiven for forgetting that there is a weekend of Premier League excitement to look forward to!

Whilst Aston Villa’s trip to Newcastle at 5.30pm on Sky Sports 1 may not necessarily be the 6 pointer it would have been a few weeks ago, there is still plenty to play for these two sides battling relegation. Woeful barely captures just how bad Villa have been this season, the Midlands side sitting on 6 points from 16 games, and without a league win since opening day. Last weekend saw another routine loss for Villa, a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal at home that marked their 13th in all competitions, and leaves them (alongside Stoke) as the least prolific team in the league with a mere 13 goals. And with Rudy Gestede and Scott Sinclair goalless since the ends of September and October respectively (and both at a Super Mega PGM spread of 17-21) it looks like Villa’s failings going forwards aren’t going to end any time soon.



In contrast Newcastle have just had a very big fortnight of results; from the near season nadir of a 5-1 loss to Crystal Palace (the Toon’s true low being their start of October 6-1 walloping at the hands of City) Steve McClaren has managed to pick his team up and bounce back (likely saving his job in the process). First they beat Liverpool 2-0 at home, an own goal from Martin Skrtel and an injury time strike from Georgino Wijnaldum (at a Super Mega PGM of 21-25) followed by an equally impressive away win at Tottenham, Eric Dier’s first half opener cancelled out by late strikes from Aleksander Mitrovic (at a Super Mega PGM of 27-32) and Ayoze Perez. That sequence of results has seen Newcastle rise from 19th to 15th; not out of the relegation woods by any means, but an important start nevertheless.

It also gives them the edge going into the weekend, despite having the joint-worst defence in the league (with Bournemouth), Spreadex offering a Newcastle/Aston Villa Goal Supremacy spread of 0.45-0.65 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.4-2.6.

Turning to Sunday and Liverpool will be aiming to leapfrog a surprisingly 7th place Watford when they travel to the Vicarage Road Stadium at 1.30pm on Sky Sports 1. Three wins on the trot against the eminently beatable Aston Villa, Norwich and, most recently, Sunderland has seen the Hornets jump within reach of a place in Europe. Whilst both the Canaries and Cherries have struggled since making the move to the top flight, Watford have been quietly going about their business this season, making up for dropped points against bigger sides with wins against the league’s mid- and bottom-tier teams. It helps that both Odion Ighalo (at a Super Mega PGM of 24-29 and the league’s 4th top scorer) and Troy Deleeny (at 15/2 to score first) are in such consistent form, at least one of the pair scoring in each of Watford’s last 7 games.



Whilst Watford are in ascendance Liverpool have had a bit of a wobble in the past fortnight. A 2-0 loss at Newcastle, and a lucky (as in 96th minute goal lucky) 2-2 draw against West Brom has seen the Reds slip to 9th in the league. That does, admittedly, still leave them within 2 points of 5th place Tottenham, but that will be no real comfort to Jurgen Klopp who is now undergoing the most difficult period of his short tenure in charge. To make matters worse Daniel Sturridge continues to be injured, putting extra pressure on the struggling Christian Benteke (at a Super Mega PGM of 29-35 but goalless since the end of October) and the improving but not-quite-there Divock Orgi (at a Super Mega PGM of 19-23).

Yet for all of Watford’s form and Liverpool’s limpness in the past few weeks, the Hornets have a tendency to lose some of their sting against ostensibly bigger opposition, leading our Spreadex traders to offer a Liverpool/Watford (h) Goal Supremacy spread of 0.45-0.65 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.4-2.6.

Finally on Sunday afternoon West Ham will be looking to jump back to the top 5 when they visit the full-time manger-less Swansea at 4pm on Sky Sports 1. With Gary Monk given the boot after the Swans’ awesome August gave way to what is now one win in 12 league games, interim manager Alan Curtis faces a slightly less imposing test this weekend than compared to his inaugural 2-1 defeat away to Manchester City. That loss made in 1 point in 6 games for Swansea, something that now seems them teetering on the edge of the relegation zone, goal difference being all that separates them and 18th place Norwich. Yet the return of Bafetimbi Gomis, who goes into Sunday at a Super Mega PGM of 30-36, could restore the fortunes of the faltering Welsh side, especially if the French international can get back into his start of season form, where he scored all 4 of Swansea’s August matches.



After an amazing start that saw Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea all fall in the face of the mighty Hammer(s), West Ham have begun to slip in the last 2 months. From 6 wins, 2 losses and 2 draws in their first 10 league games, Slaven Bilic’s side have only managed 4 draws and 2 defeats in their last 6, something that has seen them lose a step in the race for a place in Europe. Not only that but after being hit with injuries to Dimitri Payet and Diafra Sakho they have also only scored 3 goals in that period, a woeful tally when compared to the 22 scored in their first 10 matches, goals that came against arguably tougher competition. And with Andy Carroll and Manuel Lanzini (who got 2 of their 3 recent goals) both also out, Bilic will need the likes of Mauro Zarate (at a Super Mega PGM of 12-16) and Enner Valencia (at 15/2 to score first) to pick up even more of the slack going forwards.

The Hammers’ increasing lack of options going forwards, combined with the (hopeful) return of Gomis, appears to have given the Welsh side the edge ahead of Sunday, with Spreadex offering a Swansea/West Ham Goal Supremacy spread of 0.35-0.55 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.34-2.55.