Sports Blog 18/03/2015: Match Preview – UEFA Champions League Last 16 Second Leg, Wednesday 18th March 2015

With Monaco and Atletico Madrid making their way to the next round of the Champions League, the final two games of the last 16 take place with some tournament favourites still in the running.

The biggest draw for English football fans and neutrals alike will be Manchester City’s trip to the Nou Camp, where they need to score at least 2 goals against Barcelona at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 5. Following City’s first leg defeat, rumours have begun to circle about the security of Pellegrini’s job. Recapturing last year’s title seems unlikely, and a previously strong position in second has been significantly weakened, with both Arsenal and Man United knocking on the door. Things couldn’t have gone much worse at the weekend, losing 1-0 to 18th place Burnley, just the latest embarrassment for the Manchester side. In fact, in their last 10 games in all competitions, City have only won 3, drawing 2 games and losing 5. Even with the game-changing return of Yaya Toure, fresh off a Champions League suspension, scoring 2 at the Nou Camp is a big ask, and City could be looking at yet another early-European exit.



If Manchester City have floundered of late, then Barcelona have thoroughly put to bed the crisis rumours that were surrounding the club at Christmas. Since their ignominious defeat to Real Sociedad in their first game of 2015, Barcelona have won 16 out of their last 17 games and an astonishing 58 goals scored, with only a loss to Malaga at the end of February besmirching their record. They are currently 1st in La Liga by a point, and this marginal lead may play a factor in their tactics tonight. With a tough game against second place Real Madrid on Sunday, Barca may be wary of using up too much of their tank against City, especially with their 2-1 lead from the first fixture.



With a brace against City in the first leg, Luis Suarez is at 5/1 to score first, with Neymar at 15/4 and Lionel Messi, looking to make up for his missed penalty at the Etihad, favourite at 9/4. The fine form of these three men has pushed the odds of City scoring first slightly higher, with Sergio Aguero at 15/2, David Silva at 16/1 and Yaya Youre at 14/1. Whilst our Spreadex traders strongly favour the Spanish side, at a Barcelona/Manchester City Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 1.5-1.7, our clients aren’t so sure about Barca’s dominance. And considering Barcelona’s magnetic draw to the back of the net alongside City’s need to score 2 goals minimum, Spreadex are offering a high Total Goals quote of 3.4-3.6.

With City and Barcelona eating up most of the column inches, it would be easy to overlook the Champions League’s other offering. However, that would do a disservice to two of the tournament’s mainstays, as Borussia Dortmund look to overturn a one goal deficit at 7.45pm on Sky Sports 1. Despite sitting in 10th in the Bundesliga, with less than half the points of former title-rival Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund have undergone a turnaround in form since the start of February. They are unbeaten in their past 6 games in the Bundesliga, and more relevantly are unbeaten at home in Europe this season. In fact, they have won 11 of their last 14 home Champions League games, and given that they have an away goal from the first leg, Jurgen Klopp can feel confident that his men can get the job done.



However, Dortmund’s opponent is formidable. Juventus’ current form can rival Barcelona’s. Winning 10 out of their last 14, with only 1 loss in that period, Juventus are sitting atop the Serie A with a 14 point margin. Worryingly for Dortmund, Juventus have scored an average of 2.5 goals per home game this season, whilst only conceding an average of 0.5. With a 2-1 lead from the first leg in Turin, the Italian side know they only need to hold Dortmund to a goalless draw to go through, leaving the Klopp’s side with the unenviable task of breaking down a tight Italian defence to progress to the next round.



After his first leg goal keeps Dortmund in the tie, Marco Reus is at 5/1 to score first, alongside Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Ciro Immobile, also both at 5/1. For Juventus, Carlos Tevez is at 11/2 after nabbing the opening goal in the first leg, whilst Alvaro Morata, who provided Juve’s second, is at 8/1 with Fernando Llorente rounding out proceedings at 17/2. The European competition has often provided respite from the Dortmund’s torrid domestic season and our Spreadex traders fancy the German side to grab a result tonight at a Borussia Dortmund/Juventus Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.2-0.4 with a Total Goals quote of 2.45-2.65, even if it fails to lead Dortmund into the next round.