Southampton are the only English side left in Europa League qualifying, and are achingly close to the competition proper; they face Midtjylland in the 1st leg of their play-off at 8pm on BT Sport Europe.

The Saints were one of last season’s biggest surprises, given that many had expected a full-blown collapse following their rather severe summer exodus. Instead, Southampton finished in 7th (a finish that could have been higher if it wasn’t for a string of poor results towards the end of the season) and through the various ways these things work ended up in the 15/16 Europa League qualifying.



Frustratingly for the Saints a similar exodus has happened this year, with Morgan Schneiderlin and Nathaniel Clyne off to (supposedly) greener pastures. And just like last season, Southampton have managed a draw and a loss in their first two games; a late(ish) goal from Shane Long ensured a point against Newcastle, an opening game that finished 2-2 after Southampton squandered an early lead provided by Graziano Pelle. Their first home game of the season then saw them face Everton, where the Saints put in a limp performance that saw the Toffees win 3-0 following a Lukaku brace and a late goal from Ross Barkley.

And whilst the southern side soon overcame its early fumble last season to win 4 on the trot, this year they have the extra pressure of European football. Not that it has been an issue so far; Southampton have put in their most assured performances of the nascent season in qualifying, beating Vitesse 5-0 over 2 legs with 2 goals from Pelle (at 15/4 to score first on Thursday) and one goal from Sadio Mane (at 5/1 to score first).



Their opponents have taken a slightly different route to the Europa League play-offs. After winning the Danish Superliga for the first time in the club’s history, Midtjylland’s best finish since their back-to-back runners-up medals of 05/06 and 06/07, the side entered the 15/16 Champions League in the second qualifying round. There, Midtjylland beat Gibraltar champions Lincoln Red Imps 3-0 over the 2 legs, before facing Cyprus champions APOEL in the third round. After losing the 1st home leg 2-1, a 1-0 win in Cyprus wasn’t enough to see the Danes go through, exiting Europe’s premier competition on the away goal rule.

Yet they have gotten off to a fantastic start in the league, winning 4 and drawing 1 to leave them atop the Superliga by 4 points. And Midtjylland also have an impressive pair of strikers leading their front line; Martin Pusic, at 10/1 to score first, was the Superliga’s top scorer last season with 17 goals, scoring 9 for Esbjerg before a January transfer led to 8 goals for the Danish champions; former Celtic man Morten Rasmussen, meanwhile, was the Superliga’s 3rd top scorer with 13 goals and is at 9/1 to score first.

However, our Spreadex traders appear to think Midtjylland’s is soon to come to an end; despite a weak start to the season, the Saints are still expected to progress to the Europa League proper, and sit at a Southampton/Midtjylland Goal Supremacy spread of 1.45-1.65 with a Total Goals spread of 2.8-3.