Sports Blog 19/03/2015: Tournament Preview – Six Nations 2015 Final Weekend, Saturday 21st March 2015

Round 4 of the Six Nations provided the tournament with a real shake-up, leaving three sides neck and neck to take the title.

Interestingly, the fixtures have fallen in ascending order of Outright Index 60-40-20-10-5-0 spreads, where 60 points goes to first place, 40 points to second place etc, leaving the opportunity for a thrilling final match akin to Ireland’s tense victory last year. First up is a Welsh trip to Rome at 12.30pm. Italy are barely worth talking about at this point in the competition. They failed to score a single point in a dismal display against France, yet are unlikely to get the wooden spoon (at an Outright Index spread of 3.5-5.5) due to the victory over Scotland, who have been the far superior side on a match-by-match basis. Yet Italy will still have an important role to play in the tournament, purely due to the fact that Wales need to score a lot of points against Jacques Brunel’s side.



Luckily for Wales, Italy are the lowest scoring, and highest conceding, team in the tournament. A win against Italy should be par for the course; it will be the size of the win that matters. Wales are trailing Ireland and England by deficits of 21 and 25 respectively, and will need to rack up the points to put pressure on those two sides ahead of their matches later in the day. Yet Wales know they have it in them. They are going for their third title in 4 years, and have found their form at the right time after their initial loss against England.

Rob Evans and Aaron Jarvis are in for the injured Gethin Jenkins and Samson Lee, both out injured; not a perfect situation, but one Wales will have to look past come Saturday. The positioning of their fixture and the tough task they have ahead of them has left Wales with the lowest chance of winning the title reflected in an Outright Index spread of 31-34 and Outright winner fixed odds of 11/2. Yet our Spreadex traders are confident that can swat away Italy, at a Wales/Italy (h) Supremacy spread betting quote of 26-29 with a Total Points spread of 45-48.

Hot on the heels of that game in Rome comes Scotland against Ireland at 2.30pm, with both sides eager for a win, for very different reasons. Following a disappointing defeat to Italy, Scotland are coming into this game with the lowest Outright Index out of the six teams at 0.1-1. To avoid finishing last Vern Cotter’s men know they have to defeat Ireland, and could finally capitalise on the strong performances that have so far failed to yield a win. Their highest scoring games have all come at Murrayfield this tournament, so the Scots will be hoping for some home-fan help to carry them to an unexpected victory.

Yet they will be up against an Irish side that are aiming to put to bed a damaging defeat in Cardiff in order to recapture the title they claimed last year. The title was so nearly in their grasp after overturning England, but that narrow loss against Wales blew the race wide open and now Ireland are left in a position where taking the championship is no longer solely in their control. Ireland are at an Outright Index spread of 38-41 and Outright winner fixed odds of 9/5, but much like Wales will need a big win over Scotland to try and put pressure on England in the final game of the tournament. The narrow Ireland/Scotland (h) Supremacy spread betting quote of 8-11 our traders fancy may not be enough for the Irish to secure the title; it is likely to be dependent on England’s performance against France.



That game beings at 5pm, with England facing the most difficult game of the three teams still in the running. France are a far better side than Wales or Scotland, and will pose a dangerous threat to the hopes and dreams of this English team. However, England will also go into the game knowing exactly what they have to do to take the title, a psychological benefit that may give them the edge over their championship rivals. On top of this, England play their final game at Twickenham, a home advantage luxury that Wales and Ireland don’t have.

Even more importantly, England have Jonathan Joseph, whose 4 tries in 4 games leaves him at 1/3 to be overall top try scorer. In fact, England have scored more tries than Wales and England combined, leaving them as the highest scoring team in the tournament with 102 points. All of this combined puts England as odds on favourites to take the title at 8/1 and an Outright Index of 45-48, and with that the weight such expectations carry.

Yet France still have some kind of horse in this race. The French have the slimmest of slim chances to top the table, at odds of 500/1. Whilst this opportunity will disappear if just one of Wales or Ireland win their respective games, France will likely take the consolation prize of preventing England from lifting the trophy on home soil. Frustratingly for England, France (alongside Ireland) have conceded the least amount of points in the first 4 games, and will start Toulouse No. 8 Louis Picamoles in a sign they continue to play the kind of defensive game that saw them so maligned after their victory over Italy. Our traders expect an English win, at an England/France Supremacy spread betting quote of 9-12 with a Total Points spread of 39-42; it won’t be until Saturday evening when England will know whether these kinds of numbers will be enough.