Who will take the Euro 2016 Group B top spot this Monday, England or Wales (or, even, Slovakia or Russia)?

In something of a cliché at this year’s competition, England left it very indeed late to nab the winner against Wales. It took a 92nd minute moment of skill from Daniel Sturridge to seal all 3 points for Roy Hodgson’s side, Jamie Vardy having equalised Gareth Bale’s 2nd goal of the tournament just after half time. That leaves England needing a solitary point from their final group game against Slovakia to 100% guarantee a place in the knockouts, with a win meaning their position at the top of Group B is unassailable regardless of what the Welsh produce against Russia.



Although England’s place in the last 16 isn’t completely locked on, the likelihood of the side’s progress has given Hodgson even more reason to test out his squad, and rest some key faces, before the competition intensifies. Most notably Wayne Rooney, Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling (the latter 2 among the most criticised England players in the opening 2 games) are likely to start on the bench, replaced by Daniel Sturridge (at a Super Mega PGM of 26-31), Jamie Vardy (at 25-30) and Jack Wilshere.

While England don’t have much to do to ensure progression to the next round, Slovakia have a slightly more uncertain future in the competition. Their opening loss to Wales was followed up by a strong win over Russia, with goals from Vladimir Weiss and star-man Marek Hamisk (who heads into Monday night at a Super Mega PGM of 10-14). That leaves the Euro-debutantes on 3 points, meaning a win over England, and a Welsh failure to beat Russia, would put them at the top of a table, while a draw will see them in 3rd, or 2nd if Russia beat Wales.

Yet for all this handwringing over the state of Group B at the end of Monday’s games our traders expect Roy Hodgson’s side to take the most direct route, Spreadex offering an England/Slovakia Goal Supremacy spread of 0.6-0.8 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.05-2.25.



Expected to field the same XI that lost to England, Wales could still fall foul of the various involved in working out whom from Group B reaches the knockouts. Best case scenario is a win against Russia and a loss for England, something that would leave Gareth Bale (who is at a Super Mega PGM of 33-39) and co. top of the group in their first ever Euros. If Slovakia fail to beat England a draw is enough for Wales to take 2nd place, while in a potentially heart-breaking finish a loss to Russia and a point for Slovakia against the English would see the Welsh end up at the bottom of the group.

For Russia things are far more simple. A win against Wales would see them guaranteed a top 3 finish; anything else and they are out. Interestingly our Spreadex traders have found the tie just too hard to call, offering a choice Russia/Wales Goal Supremacy spread of -0.1-0.1 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.05-2.25.

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