Sports Blog 21/05/2015 – Play-Offs Preview – Football League Play-Off Finals, Saturday 23rd, Sunday 24th & Monday 25th May 2015

Whilst the Premier League goes into its final round of games on Sunday with little to play for beyond the final relegation spot, the Championship, League One and League Two play-offs should provide a bit more excitement for football fans this weekend.

First up is the League Two final on Saturday, with Southend taking on Wycombe at 5.30pm on Sky Sports 1. Southend left it late in their play-off semi-final to reach Wembley. The Essex-based side were pushed to extra time after a 1-1 with Stevenage in their first leg led normal time to finish 2-2 on aggregate at Roots Hall; however, extra-time goals from Stephen McLaughlin and Michael Timlin saw the Seasiders reach the final. Southend will be gunning for promotion when they go to Wembley after losing their final day tie Morecambe, in the process missing out on automatic promotion as Bury took the final spot. This was especially heart-breaking since before that loss in Morecambe, Southend had won 7 games on the trot. This remarkable form at the end of the season, as well as the tenacity shown against Stevenage, has left Southend on a League 2 Play-Off Index spread of 17-18.5, where the winner receives 25 points and the runner up receives 10.

 

 

Wycombe finished on the same points as Southend by the season’s close, with their 84 being too few to take the final automatic promotion place off of Bury. Unlike Southend it was their penultimate, not final, game that undid Wycombe; yet the culprits were the same, with a 1-0 loss to Morecombe damaging their chances. However the Chairboys dusted themselves off to beat Plymouth 5-3 over the two legs, and secure their place at Wembley. Wycombe will also be buoyed by the fact that earlier in the season they beat Southend 4-1 at home before holding the Seasiders to a draw in Essex. This has left Wycombe on a League 2 Play-Off Index spread of 16.5-18.

 

Their final day defeat, devastating as it was, was an anomaly at the close of Southend’s season, and they recaptured some of their spirit over the two legs against Stevenage. This has given the Seasiders a very narrow advantage over the Chairboys, at a Southend/Wycombe Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0-0.2 with a Total Goals spread of 2.25-2.45.

First up is the League One final on Sunday, where Preston North End face Swindon at 5.30pm on Sky Sports 1. This is Preston’s 10th attempt at play-off promotion, with 9 previous failures behind them in various leagues over the years. Yet they are perhaps in their best position ever to come out the victors at Wembley. Despite finishing only one place above them, Preston were 10 points above Swindon in the league and only denied automatic promotion due to their final day loss to Colchester. And whilst they lost in Swindon back in November, when the Robins visited Deepdale at the end of April the Lilywhites won 3-0. This has left Preston on a League One Play-Off Index spread of 18-19, where the winner receives 25 points and the runner up receives 10.



If Preston swept away Chesterfield on their route to the play-off final, Swindon had a much more difficult path to Wembley. Winning 7-6 on aggregate, a record number of goals for a play-off semi-final, Swindon had to endure a heart-racing 5-5 draw against Sheffield United to qualify. Yet they proved their mettle by not capitulating against such robust opposition, and perhaps had a better test of their abilities going into the play-off final than their rivals. However, as shown by that goal-filled semi-final, Swindon’s defence isn’t the best, with the Robins only managing 1 clean sheet in 12 games. This has left them on a slightly lower League One Play-Off Index spread of 16-17.

Preston’s top scorer Joe Garner, with 26 goals this season, is at 9/2 to score first with a Super Mega Player Goal Minutes spread of 27-32. Jermaine Beckford is at 11/2 at a Super Mega PGM spread of 21-26 whilst Callum Robinson is at 8/1 with a Super Mega PGM spread of 14-18. For Swindon, their top scorer, Andy Williams with 21 goals, is at 7/1 to score first with a Super Mega Player Goal Minutes spread of 17-21 whilst Michael Smith, following a brace in that thriller against Sheffield United, is at 6/1 with a Super Mega Player Goal Minutes spread of 19-23.

In both the season’s run in, and the play-off semi-finals, Preston have looked the better side. However, the play-off finals can throw up some funny results, and given how many times the Lilywhites have fluffed their play-off lines in the past, they only have a narrow advantage at a Preston/Swindon Goal Supremacy sports spread betting quote of 0.3-0.5 with a Total Goals spread of 2.4-2.6.

The Spring Bank Holiday will then see who joins Bournemouth and Watford in ascension to the Premier League, with Norwich and Middlesbrough battling it out at 3pm on Sky Sports 1. They finished in 3rd and 4th respectively, with only a point between them, so there is some justice that these two sides prevailed over Brentford and Ipswich in the play-off semi-finals. Middlesbrough were very convincing over the 2 semi-final legs, winning 5-1 on aggregate with their home tie seeing an especially emphatic 3-0 victory over the Bees. They also have previous form against their final rivals, beating Norwich 4-0 back in November and 1-0 back in April, leaving Middlesbrough on a Championship Play-Off Index spread of 16.5-18.



Yet despite their double defeat to Boro during the season proper, Alex Neil has a formidable 66.67% win rate since taking over at Carrow Road; in fact, Norwich’s most recent loss to Middlesbrough in the middle of April was their only defeat in the last 13 games. And like Middlesbrough, Norwich were impressive in their semi-final, especially at home. A tight 1-1 first leg against bitter rivals Ipswich gave way to a thumping 3-1 win at Carrow Road after a Christophe Berra sending off sparked the game into life in the second half. If they can survive the intensity of the biggest East Anglian derby ever, then Neil’s men should be able to handle the pressure on Monday’s trip to Wembley, leaving them on a slightly higher Championship Play-Off Index spread of 17-18.5.

Both sides going into this final will be frustrated they didn’t secure automatic promotion after being in the race throughout the entire season. It is almost too hard to call who will be the eventually become the Premier League’s latest addition, but after their hard fought win over Ipswich and their formidable form at the end of the season, our traders have given the Canaries a slight advantage at a Norwich/Middlesbrough Goal Supremacy sports spread betting quote of 0-0.2 with a Total Goals spread of 2.3-2.5.