Sports Blog 21/09/2015: Match Preview – Rugby World Cup, Wednesday 23rd September 2015

We are only a weekend in and already the Rugby World Cup has thrown up some fantastic matches and one colossal surprise; can Wednesday’s games produce any more shocks or will it be business as usual for the bigger teams?

Scotland make their 2015 World Cup debut early on Wednesday afternoon, as they face the tougher-than-first-thought Japan at 2.30pm on ITV. The Brave Blossoms lived up to their nickname, and were responsible for the arguably the most thrilling, and easily the most surprisingly, game of the opening weekend, beating group favourites South Africa 34-32 after a final minute try from Karne Hesketh. It’s the kind of breath-taking giant-killing that doesn’t often happen at this level of the game, and changes the face of Pool B, a group where the Springboks were expected to easily grab the top spot. Ayumu Goromaru, at a tournament Player Try Minutes spread of 12-15, was the star of the match, getting with a try, 2 conversions and 5 penalties.



Yet despite leapfrogging Scotland on the world rankings, now sitting in 11th to the Scots’ 12th, Japan are still at a measly Outright Index spread of 5.5-7 to Scotland’s 21-24. It shows there is still a way to go if Japan are to escape the group, and Scotland’s fresher legs may help them overcome the Brave Blossoms, who will be playing their 2nd game in 5 days. Scotland have also beaten Japan in all 4 of their previous meetings, and importantly will have Stuart Hogg, at a tournament PTM spread of 66-74, in the line-up after the Glasgow Warrior returned from injury in time for the first game.

Frustratingly for the Brave Blossoms our traders think it might be asking too much of a jubilant Japan to win 2 games on the trot, and are offering a Scotland/Japan Supremacy spread of 19-22.

Moving on to Wednesday’s late afternoon game, and Australia could face a tricky task when they take on Fiji at 4.45pm on ITV. The Fijians, at an Outright Index spread of 5-6.5, suffered for their poor lineouts against England, but pushed the tournament hosts close until the final 20 minutes of the game, where they conceded 2 tries, 2 conversions and a penalty. Nemani Nadolo’s (8/13 to be Fiji’s top tryscorer) try and a penalty joined Ben Volavola’s own successful penalty to give Fiji 11 points. However, if Nadolo and Volavola hadn’t missed a combined 3 penalties AND an unsuccessful conversation, Fiji could have ran England a lot closer than the scoreline suggests, and means Australia will need to watch out if they don’t want to go the way of South Africa.



However, fresh off their first Rugby Championship victory since 2011, Australia are a team in ascendance, at an Outright Index spread of 45-48 with 13/2 fixed odds to lift the Webb Ellis Cup. Israel Folou, at 28/1 to be top tryscorer, is the one to watch, with the rugby league convert labelled as a potential tournament winner for the Wallabies. Beyond Folau, David Pocock and Michael Hooper are both set to appear in the back row; starting for the first time together against New Zealand in the Rugby Championship, their teamwork was a key part of Australia’s tournament-winning victory, and they will be looking to continue their nascent, if impressive, form against Fiji.

Given the toughness of Pool A this opener is somewhat of a must-win for the Wallabies; luckily for Michael Cheika our traders don’t think they will be too troubled, offering an Australia/Fiji Supremacy spread of 24-27.

Finally Wednesday evening sees a daunting first game for Romania, who take on France at 8pm on ITV4. It was a bittersweet opener for the French on Saturday; a comprehensive 32-10 victory over Italy was exactly the kind of performance they needed in order to keep up with their Pool D rivals Ireland. However, that win carried with it the hefty loss of Yoann Huget, who suffered a cruciate ligament injury that rules him out of the rest of the tournament. A big blow, to be sure, but one France should be able to recover from, especially with an impressive 19 points display from Frederic Michalak. They should also take heart from the fact that Spreadex still sees them as more than a contender, at an Outright Index spread of 41-44 with 14/1 fixed odds.



The French also have a relatively soft second game opponent in the form of Romania. Whilst Japan may have showed that the big boys are more than capable of suffering a nasty surprise, at 17th in the world Romania are the 4th worst ranked side in the tournament, ahead of only Canada, Uruguay and Namibia (the first two having already suffered hefty defeats with the latter almost certain to endure the same against New Zealand on Thursday). And at an Outright Index spread of 1.5-2.5 it is looking unlikely that the Oaks will be able to escape the Pool stages for the first time in their World Cup history.

As Japan proved, there is plenty of room for surprises at this World Cup; however, Romania aren’t the Brave Blossoms, and France will be looking to catch up with Ireland’s try-based bonus point, leading Spreadex to offer a France/Romania Supremacy spread of 44-47.