Sports Blog 22/12/2015: Test Preview – South Africa vs England, Saturday 26th December 2015

Both England and South Africa head into this series off the back of tough, losing tours. Just as England were comfortably swept aside 2-0 by Pakistan recently, South Africa suffered a 3-0 thumping in India. Both of those series were played in sub-continental conditions however, and it will be a different story in the Rainbow Nation.

The more seam-friendly wickets throughout this series will suit both sides bowling attacks far better, and the batsmen will be relieved to be far away from the spinning wickets and the likes of Ravi Ashwin and Yasir Shah. Our traders give South Africa the edge, installing them as the 4/5 favourites for the series, and it is impossible to overlook the benefits of home advantage in a Test series such as this. Alastair Cook’s men are 11/5 with a drawn series available at 15/4. The team’s series indices (based on 25 pts per test won and 10 pts per test drawn) confirm the host’s favouritism, with the South Africans pitched at 53-56 and England at 39-42.

As with all recent series between these two sides there will be plenty of needle out in the middle, and the Captains will be seen as a target for both sides. It seems a lifetime ago that Alastair Cook was clinging on to his test career by his finger nails, with an Ashes victory and a dramatic improvement in his own form re-establishing him as England’s leader. Cook series runs in this 4 test series are priced up at 315-330, and if England are to have success the skipper will need to live up to this expectation to provide a solid platform at the top of the order. For those who fancy another marathon Cook innings during this series his series Ton Ups are pitched at 40-46, which could look cheap if he beds in as he did in his almost 14 hour knock in the UAE. Cook is priced up as the 11/4 second favourite to be England’s top runs scorer in the series, behind only Joe Root.



South Africa’s captain Hashim Amla has also had his critics in recent times, but when he is on form there are few more impressive batsmen in world cricket. A superb stroke player all around the wicket, Amla is capable of destroying any bowling attack on his day. As skipper he will no doubt be targeted by the English attack, but there’s little doubt he has the class to overcome their attention. Amla series runs are quoted at 335-350, with his Ton Ups pitched at 50-56. For those who fancy the captain to lead by example Amla is the 5/2 second favourite to top score for the hosts, behind only the phenomenal AB de Villiers.

Despite the impressive records of both captains there is little doubt who the outstanding batsmen are in each line-up. Cherubic Yorkshireman Joe Root is the jewel in the crown of this English batting order, now firmly established as one of the elite batsmen in the game today. Root fills a familiar spot as favourite to top score for his side in this series, with 7/4 the price available. His series runs are quoted at 350-365, an expectation of roughly 90 runs per test. Against a formidable bowling attack including Morne Morkel and Dale Steyn, Root will be absolutely crucial to England posting strong totals. Root Ton Ups are pitched at 53-59, comfortably the highest quote of any English batsman.

In recent months the official rankings have thrown up several different ‘world number one’ players, including Root, Kane Williamson and Steve Smith – however few would argue in terms of pure talent AB de Villiers is at the top of the tree. A sporting freak excelling at pretty much anything he has ever turned his hand to, de Villiers has all the shots for all the formats. His series runs are pitched at the highest level of any player in this series (360-375), as are his series Ton Ups (58-64), and he is the 15/8 favourite to top score for the Proteas. Seeing de Villiers in full flow is probably the most exhilarating sight in cricket at the moment, but for England fans and backers it will be the last thing they want to see this winter.

Someday soon England will have to find a new opening bowler, but for now the experienced pair of Broad and Anderson will take the new ball and hope to make the early inroads. With 10 pts per wicket and a 25 pt bonus for a 5-wicket haul, the bowler series performance quotes of Anderson (184-194) and Broad (180-190) reflect how important these two are to England’s prospects. With the unpredictability of Steve Finn or the inexperience of Mark Footitt and Chris Jordan likely forming the remainder of the attack alongside all-rounder Ben Stokes and spinner Moeen Ali, the onus is really on the two veteran seamers to deliver for captain Cook.

There is no doubt who the Proteas main weapon is with the ball. Dale Steyn has certainly reached all-time great status, and can break several more records before he’s done. Still capable of spells of fierce hostility, Steyn’s bowler series performance quote is pitched at a series-high 220-230. With Vernon Philander unfit for the opening test, Morne Morkel will most likely be Steyn’s chief partner in crime. The giant seamer can be even more threatening than Steyn on his day, particularly if wickets are suited to his back of a length assaults. Morkel’s series bowler performance is pitched at 172-182, perhaps reflecting our traders’ view that Morkel is more likely to fill a supporting role rather than lead the attack for the South Africans in this series.

For punters with no strong view on which side will win the series we have several more obscure markets which may be of interest. We have priced up total 6s hit in the series (33.5-35), total boundary 4s (565-575) and the combined total of all 4 tests’ first over runs (10.6-11.1). We also have on offer total series wides (29-30.5), total series extras (222-232) and total series ducks (14-15). Any of these markets allow for an interest in the series without taking a view as to the outcome of the series or how a particular player will perform.

It is all set up for an exciting winter for English cricket, with a tour of South Africa perhaps second only to an Ashes tour in terms of generating excitement amongst English supporters. Despite going in as underdogs England are certainly not without hope in this series. Pessimistic England followers may be interested in the 14/1 about South Africa winning the series 4-0, whilst surely only the most optimistic Barmy Army member would avail themselves to the 33/1 that England win by the same whitewash scoreline.

The series kicks off early on Boxing Day morning, and what better way to relax after the stresses of Christmas Day than a day of good old-fashioned Test cricket! As always Spreadex will provide the most complete spread and fixed-odds service, with a full in-running service throughout all four tests. Let the battle for the Basil D’Oliveira Trophy begin!