Sports Blog 22/07/2015: Match Preview – CONCACAF 2015 Semi-Finals, Wednesday 22nd July 2015

Perhaps one of the less-covered continental competitions, the CONCACAF Gold Cup has nevertheless thrown up a few surprises on the way to its Thursday’s semi-finals.

First up sees tournament mainstays, and hosts, the USA take on one of the Gold Cup’s 2015 underdogs, Jamaica. With the best Outright Index spread of 40-43, the USA men’s team are trying to emulate the success of their female counterparts, even if on a much smaller stage. Behind Mexico the USA are the second most successful side in the tournament’s history, with 5 titles, and are current champions after beating Panama in the 2013 final.



They easily topped their group, beating Honduras 2-1, Haiti 1-0 and drawing with Panama 1-1, to set up a historic quarter-final match against Cuba. Given the recent political agreements between the two nations, there was a lot of hubbub before the match; on the pitch, however, traffic was purely one way, with the enjoying an emphatic 6-0 win, in no small part helped by a Clint Dempsey hat trick. Add on his 3 goals from the group stages and Dempsey is comfortably the tournament’s top scorer with 6 goals. And despite being 32, Dempsey has a (slim) chance of becoming the USA’s top scorer of all-time, with 47 goals to Landon Donovan’s record 57.

Yet Dempsey will be coming up against the surprisingly tight defence of Jamaica. Like the USA Jamaica have only conceded 2 goals in the tournament so far, topping a group that included World Cup heroes Costa Rica, El Salvador and (minor) co-hosts Canada. 1-0 victories over the latter two sides aren’t too much to shout home about, but a 2-2 draw against Costa Rica is impressive for a side that could more than reasonably be called minnows. The Reggae Boyz then ground out another 1-0 win against Haiti in the quarter-finals to seem them progress to their first semi-final since 1998, when they eventually came fourth after losing to Brazil in the third-place playoff.



Sitting at an Outright Index spread of 24-27, it’s been quite a different story for Jamaica in the Gold Cup compared to their debut appearance at the Copa America earlier in the year. In that tournament they lost all 3 group games to Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina, with their Gold Cup ‘change’ in fortunes perhaps more reflective of the vast difference between the footballing quality of the two sister continents than any great upswing in form by Jamaica. They may, therefore, struggle against arguably the toughest side they have come across in the competition so far, leaving the United States with the advantage at a USA/Jamaica Goal Supremacy spread of 1.1-1.3 and a Total Goals spread of 2.25-2.45.

The other side of the draw sees Panama face Mexico in a rehash of the 2013 semi-final. Panama snuck into the knockout rounds by being the best ranked 3rd place side in the group stages. It was a group that saw Panama get a solid 3 points by holding the USA, Haiti and Honduras all to draws. Their quarter-final match against Trinidad & Tobago then went to penalties after the 1-1 deadlock couldn’t be broken. In fact, it took 18 penalties, 9 from each side, for the match to reach a conclusion, with Panama eventually emerging with a triumphant 6 to Trinidad & Tobago’s 5.



Panama will now be aiming to lift their first CONCACAF title after losing the 2013 final to the USA following a 69th minute goal from former Stoke defender Brek Shea. On the way to that final they actually managed to beat Mexico 2-1 in the semi-finals, a feat that might be more difficult this time around with Los Manitos looking rather dangerous in front of goal throughout the competition (with Mexico’s 11 goals so far narrowly beating the USA’s 10). Nevertheless, Panama enter the semi-final with a respectable Outright Index spread of 27-30.

However, as mentioned, Mexico are looking strong at the 2015 Gold Cup, and are aiming for their 10th CONCACAF title. Mexico are the most successful side in the competition’s history (going all the way back to when it was the CONCACAF Championship), with 9 titles, 2 second place finishes, 4 third place finishes and 1 fourth place finish. This means that Mexico have finished in the top 4 in 16 of the 22 tournaments, something that jumps to 17 in 23 when you factor in this year’s uncompleted competition. The Mexican side fielded at the Gold Cup is almost completely different to the inferior team sent to the Copa America (where they failed to escape their group), with manager Miguel Herrera deciding to prioritise the more winnable of the two tournaments.



So far it’s been a largely successful strategy; they started the tournament by smashing Cuba, like the USA, 6-0, only to fall to a snore-draw with Guetemala. A thrilling, and shocking, 4-4 draw with Trinidad & Tobago then saw the Caribbean team leapfrog Los Manitos to the top of the Group C table, as Mexico blew their lead in the 93rd minute, setting up a tough quarter-final against Costa Rica. They eventually beat Los Ticos with an extra time goal from Andres Guardardo, his third of the tournament, to reach their 17th semi-final. Panama might have beaten Mexico back in 2013, but Herrera’s side have the advantage here, with a Mexico/Panama Goal Supremacy spread betting quote of 0.8-1 alongside a Total Goals spread of 2.2-2.4.

Make sure to check Spreadex for all the latest CONCACAF Gold Cup fixed odds and spread betting opportunities, including prices for Saturday’s third place playoff and Sunday’s final!